相关论文: Default priors for Gaussian processes

We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be argued to be objective. Hitherto, this has been considered…

We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…

Some scenarios require the computation of a predictive distribution of a new value evaluated on an objective function conditioned on previous observations. We are interested on using a model that makes valid assumptions on the objective…

In a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models, we prove that the posterior distribution can be asymptotically approximated by a Gaussian process. Our results apply to nonparametric exponential family that contains both Gaussian and…

Deep Gaussian Processes learn probabilistic data representations for supervised learning by cascading multiple Gaussian Processes. While this model family promises flexible predictive distributions, exact inference is not tractable.…

Gaussian process priors are a popular choice for Bayesian analysis of regression problems. However, the implementation of these models can be complex, and ensuring that the implementation is correct can be challenging. In this paper we…

Gaussian processes allow for flexible specification of prior assumptions of unknown dynamics in state space models. We present a procedure for efficient Bayesian learning in Gaussian process state space models, where the representation is…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) can be used as flexible, non-parametric function priors. Inspired by the growing body of work on Normalizing Flows, we enlarge this class of priors through a parametric invertible transformation that can be made…

Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…

While Jeffreys priors usually are well-defined for the parameters of mixtures of distributions, they are not available in closed form. Furthermore, they often are improper priors. Hence, they have never been used to draw inference on the…

Gaussian processes are probabilistic models that are commonly used as functional priors in machine learning. Due to their probabilistic nature, they can be used to capture the prior information on the statistics of noise, smoothness of the…

We introduce a general IFS Bayesian method for getting posterior probabilities from prior probabilities, and also a generalized Bayes' rule, which will contemplate a dynamical, as well as a non-dynamical setting. Given a loss function…

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

We study the performance of nonparametric Bayes procedures for one-dimensional diffusions with periodic drift. We improve existing convergence rate results for Gaussian process (GP) priors with fixed hyper parameters. Moreover, we exhibit…

We propose a Bayesian framework of Gaussian process in order to extend Fisher's discriminant to classify functional data such as spectra and images. The probability structure for our extended Fisher's discriminant is explicitly formulated,…

We study the use of Gaussian process emulators to approximate the parameter-to-observation map or the negative log-likelihood in Bayesian inverse problems. We prove error bounds on the Hellinger distance between the true posterior…

The focus of this work is the convergence of non-stationary and deep Gaussian process regression. More precisely, we follow a Bayesian approach to regression or interpolation, where the prior placed on the unknown function $f$ is a…

It is a relatively well-known fact that in problems of Bayesian model selection improper priors should, in general, be avoided. In this paper we derive a proper and parsimonious uniform prior for regression coefficients. We then use this…

The Yule-Simon distribution is usually employed in the analysis of frequency data. As the Bayesian literature, so far, ignored this distribution, here we show the derivation of two objective priors for the parameter of the Yule-Simon…

In a Bayesian learning setting, the posterior distribution of a predictive model arises from a trade-off between its prior distribution and the conditional likelihood of observed data. Such distribution functions usually rely on additional…