相关论文: You Can Fool Some People Sometimes

Financial statements contain quantitative information and manager's subjective evaluation of firm's financial status. Using information released in U.S. 10-K filings. Both qualitative and quantitative appraisals are crucial for quality…

On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies are required to report fundamentals: financial data such as revenue, operating income, debt, among others. These data points provide some insight into the financial health of a company.…

We examine how large language models (LLMs) interpret historical stock returns and compare their forecasts with estimates from a crowd-sourced platform for ranking stocks. While stock returns exhibit short-term reversals, LLM forecasts…

We analyze correlations among stock returns via a series of widely adopted parameters which we refer to as explanatory variables. We subsequently exploit the results to propose a long only quantitative adaptive technique to construct a…

On a periodic basis, publicly traded companies report fundamentals, financial data including revenue, earnings, debt, among others. Quantitative finance research has identified several factors, functions of the reported data that…

In using multiple regression methods for prediction, one often considers the linear combination of explanatory variables as an index. Seeking a single such index when here are multiple responses is rather more complicated. One classical…

This paper describes experiments on fine-tuning a small language model to generate forecasts of long-horizon stock price movements. Inputs to the model are narrative text from 10-K reports of large market capitalization companies in the S&P…

We hypothesize that portfolio sorts based on the V/P ratio generate excess returns and consist of companies that are undervalued for prolonged periods. Results, for the US market show that high V/P portfolios outperform low V/P portfolios…

We describe a new framework for causal inference and its application to return time series. In this system, causal relationships are represented as logical formulas, allowing us to test arbitrarily complex hypotheses in a computationally…

Long term investment is one of the major investment strategies. However, calculating intrinsic value of some company and evaluating shares for long term investment is not easy, since analyst have to care about a large number of financial…

We present a simple and effective way to generate a variety of paraphrases and find a good quality paraphrase among them. As in previous studies, it is difficult to ensure that one generation method always generates the best paraphrase in…

Firm disclosures about future prospects are crucial for corporate valuation and compliance with global regulations, such as the EU's MAR and the US's SEC Rule 10b-5 and RegFD. To comply with disclosure obligations, issuers must identify…

In recent years, large language models have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks. However, their task effectiveness is heavily dependent on the prompting strategy used to elicit output, which can vary widely in both…

We uncover a new anomaly in asset pricing that is linked to the remuneration: the more a company spends on salaries and benefits per employee, the better its stock performs, on average. Moreover, the companies adopting similar remuneration…

People vary in their ability to make accurate predictions about the future. Prior studies have shown that some individuals can predict the outcome of future events with consistently better accuracy. This leads to a natural question: what…

To take advantage of strategy commitment, a useful tactic of playing games, a leader must learn enough information about the follower's payoff function. However, this leaves the follower a chance to provide fake information and influence…

A commonly used heuristic in RL is experience replay (e.g.~\citet{lin1993reinforcement, mnih2015human}), in which a learner stores and re-uses past trajectories as if they were sampled online. In this work, we initiate a rigorous study of…

Evaluating modern ML models is hard. The strong incentive for researchers and companies to report a state-of-the-art result on some metric often leads to questionable research practices (QRPs): bad practices which fall short of outright…

The acquisition of survey responses is a crucial component in conducting research aimed at comprehending public opinion. However, survey data collection can be arduous, time-consuming, and expensive, with no assurance of an adequate…

Forecasting stock returns is a challenging problem due to the highly stochastic nature of the market and the vast array of factors and events that can influence trading volume and prices. Nevertheless it has proven to be an attractive…