相关论文: Direct pivotal predictive inference

We present a method of constructing statistical intervals that obtain a natural middle ground between Bayesian and frequentist statistical intervals, previously unexplored in literature: To a p% Bayesian credible interval we should assign a…

Bayesian models provide recursive inference naturally because they can formally reconcile new data and existing scientific information. However, popular use of Bayesian methods often avoids priors that are based on exact posterior…

This paper develops a general causal inference method for treatment effects models with noisily measured confounders. The key feature is that a large set of noisy measurements are linked with the underlying latent confounders through an…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

We investigate solution methods for large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) via Bayesian inference. The Bayesian framework provides a statistical setting to infer uncertain parameters from noisy…

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

The validity of two-step or plug-in inference methods is questioned in the Bayesian framework. We study semi-parametric models where the plug-in of a non-parametrically modelled nuisance component is used. We show that when the nuisance and…

Signal processing techniques will lean on blind methods in the near future, where no redundant, resource allocating information will be transmitted through the channel. To achieve a proper decision, however, it is essential to know at least…

Instrumental variable methods provide useful tools for inferring causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. To apply these methods with large-scale data sets, a major challenge is to find valid instruments from a possibly…

We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…

The No Unmeasured Confounding Assumption is widely used to identify causal effects in observational studies. Recent work on proximal inference has provided alternative identification results that succeed even in the presence of unobserved…

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in statistical methods that exhibit robust performance under distribution changes between training and test data. While most of the related research focuses on point predictions with the…

A product of two Gaussians (or normal distributions) is another Gaussian. That's a valuable and useful fact! Here we use it to derive a refactoring of a common product of multivariate Gaussians: The product of a Gaussian likelihood times a…

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the parameters given the data. Some might worry that conditional…

In this study, we introduce a new approach to statistical decision theory. Without using a loss function, we select good decision rules to choice between two hypotheses. We call them "experts". They are globally unbiased but also…

We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…

Recent work has discussed the limitations of counterfactual explanations to recommend actions for algorithmic recourse, and argued for the need of taking causal relationships between features into consideration. Unfortunately, in practice,…

It is desirable to have accurate uncertainty estimation from a single deterministic forward-pass model, as traditional methods for uncertainty quantification are computationally expensive. However, this is difficult because single…

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…