相关论文: Asymptotic global robustness in bayesian decision …

We introduce two kinds of risk measures with respect to some reference probability measure, which both allow for a certain order structure and domination property. Analyzing their relation to each other leads to the question when a certain…

The quality of a Bayes factor crucially depends on the number of regressors, the sample size and the prior on the regression parameters, and hence it has to be established in a case-by-case basis. In this paper we analyze the consistency of…

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…

In this article, we proposed a partition:wise robust loss function based on the previous robust loss function. The characteristics of this loss function are that it achieves high robustness and a wide range of applicability through…

We investigate the posterior rate of convergence for wavelet shrinkage using a Bayesian approach in general Besov spaces. Instead of studying the Bayesian estimator related to a particular loss function, we focus on the posterior…

The earth system is exceedingly complex and often chaotic in nature, making prediction incredibly challenging: we cannot expect to make perfect predictions all of the time. Instead, we look for specific states of the system that lead to…

We consider the classical problems of estimating the mean of an $n$-dimensional normally (with identity covariance matrix) or Poisson distributed vector under the squared loss. In a Bayesian setting the optimal estimator is given by the…

A stream of algorithmic advances has steadily increased the popularity of the Bayesian approach as an inference paradigm, both from the theoretical and applied perspective. Even with apparent successes in numerous application fields, a…

This paper presents a general asymptotic theory of sequential Bayesian estimation giving results for the strongest, almost sure convergence. We show that under certain smoothness conditions on the probability model, the greedy information…

A local projection is a statistical framework that accounts for the relationship between an exogenous variable and an endogenous variable, measured at different time points. Local projections are often applied in impulse response analyses…

Adversarial robustness is a critical property in a variety of modern machine learning applications. While it has been the subject of several recent theoretical studies, many important questions related to adversarial robustness are still…

Conventional approaches to grasp planning require perfect knowledge of an object's pose and geometry. Uncertainties in these quantities induce uncertainties in the quality of planned grasps, which can lead to failure. Classically, grasp…

Some machine learning applications require continual learning - where data comes in a sequence of datasets, each is used for training and then permanently discarded. From a Bayesian perspective, continual learning seems straightforward:…

Forecast combination methods have traditionally emphasized symmetric loss functions, particularly squared error loss, with equally weighted combinations often justified as a robust approach under such criteria. However, these justifications…

We derive, in the classical framework of Bayesian sensitivity analysis, optimal lower and upper bounds on posterior values obtained from Bayesian models that exactly capture an arbitrarily large number of finite-dimensional marginals of the…

External pilot trials of complex interventions are used to help determine if and how a confirmatory trial should be undertaken, providing estimates of parameters such as recruitment, retention and adherence rates. The decision to progress…

Continual learning is motivated by the need to adapt to real-world dynamics in tasks and data distribution while mitigating catastrophic forgetting. Despite significant advances in continual learning techniques, the theoretical…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

Standard Bayesian inference is known to be sensitive to model misspecification, leading to unreliable uncertainty quantification and poor predictive performance. However, finding generally applicable and computationally feasible methods for…

The ranking problem is to order a collection of units by some unobserved parameter, based on observations from the associated distribution. This problem arises naturally in a number of contexts, such as business, where we may want to rank…