相关论文: Probabilistic Events and Physical Reality: A Compl…

Abstract argumentation offers an appealing way of representing and evaluating arguments and counterarguments. This approach can be enhanced by a probability assignment to each argument. There are various interpretations that can be ascribed…

Contingency and accident are two important notions in philosophy and philosophical logic. Their meanings are so close that they are mixed sometimes, in both everyday discourse and academic research. This indicates that it is necessary to…

In decision theory an act is a function from a set of conditions to the set of real numbers. The set of conditions is a partition in some algebra of events. The expected value of an act can be calculated when a probability measure is given.…

An approach is presented treating decision theory as a probabilistic theory based on quantum techniques. Accurate definitions are given and thorough analysis is accomplished for the quantum probabilities describing the choice between…

We introduce a new mathematical framework for the probabilistic description of an experiment on a system of any type in terms of information representing this system initially. Based on the notions of an information state and a generalized…

Do completely unpredictable events exist in nature? Classical theory, being fully deterministic, completely excludes fundamental randomness. On the contrary, quantum theory allows for randomness within its axiomatic structure. Yet, the fact…

Bayesian probability theory is used as a framework to develop a formalism for the scientific method based on principles of inductive reasoning. The formalism allows for precise definitions of the key concepts in theories of physics and also…

Bayesian networks provide a probabilistic semantics for qualitative assertions about likelihood. A qualitative reasoner based on an algebra over these assertions can derive further conclusions about the influence of actions. While the…

We present a semantics for adding uncertainty to conditional logics for default reasoning and belief revision. We are able to treat conditional sentences as statements of conditional probability, and express rules for revision such as "If A…

We introduce a framework to describe probabilistic models in Bell experiments, and more generally in contextuality scenarios. Such a scenario is a hypergraph whose vertices represent elementary events and hyperedges correspond to…

Starting with a likelihood or preference order on worlds, we extend it to a likelihood ordering on sets of worlds in a natural way, and examine the resulting logic. Lewis earlier considered such a notion of relative likelihood in the…

We give a probabilistic analysis of inductive knowledge and belief and explore its predictions concerning knowledge about the future, about laws of nature, and about the values of inexactly measured quantities. The analysis combines a…

As physics searches for invariants in observations, this paper looks for invariants of probabilistic observation without assuming physical structure. Structure emerges from the basic assumption of science that new information shall lead to…

The classical propositional assumption-based model is extended to incorporate probabilities for the assumptions. Then it is placed into the framework of evidence theory. Several authors like Laskey, Lehner (1989) and Provan (1990) already…

Uncertainty in economics still poses some fundamental problems illustrated, e.g., by the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes. To overcome these difficulties, economists have introduced an interesting distinction between 'risk' and 'ambiguity'…

We attempt to contribute some novel points of view to the "foundations of quantum mechanics", using mathematical tools from "quantum probability theory" (such as the theory of operator algebras). We first introduce an abstract algebraic…

We begin our journey by recalling the fundamentals of Probability Theory that underlie one of its most significant applications to real-world problems: Parametric Estimation. Throughout the text, we systematically develop this theme by…

Symbolic event recognition systems have been successfully applied to a variety of application domains, extracting useful information in the form of events, allowing experts or other systems to monitor and respond when significant events are…

Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calculations often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such…

Philosophers now seem to agree that frequentism is an untenable strategy to explain the meaning of probabilities. Nevertheless, I want to revive frequentism, and I will do so by grounding probabilities on typicality in the same way as the…