相关论文: An alternative inference tool to total probability…

Bayesian network is a complete model for the variables and their relationships, it can be used to answer probabilistic queries about them. A Bayesian network can thus be considered a mechanism for automatically applying Bayes' theorem to…

Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complex stochastic models, where it is easy to simulate from the models, but impossible to calculate likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method of inference for…

We propose a new model selection method, the posterior averaging information criterion, for Bayesian model assessment from a predictive perspective. The theoretical foundation is built on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify the…

Statistical inference for extreme values of random events is difficult in practice due to low sample sizes and inaccurate models for the studied rare events. If prior knowledge for extreme values is available, Bayesian statistics can be…

In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of an option price. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as…

Empirical Bayes methods are widely used for large-scale inference, yet most classical approaches assume homoscedastic observations and focus primarily on posterior mean estimation. We develop a nonparametric empirical Bayes framework for…

The is no other model or hypothesis verification tool in Bayesian statistics that is as widely used as the Bayes factor. We focus on generative models that are likelihood-free and, therefore, render the computation of Bayes factors…

Across the empirical sciences, few statistical procedures rival the popularity of the frequentist t-test. In contrast, the Bayesian versions of the t-test have languished in obscurity. In recent years, however, the theoretical and practical…

If the prior probability distributions of all possible hypothetical true means and all possible observed means of a continuous variable are conditional on the universal set of all numbers (i.e., before the nature of a study is known and a…

Hierarchical models are versatile tools for joint modeling of data sets arising from different, but related, sources. Fully Bayesian inference may, however, become computationally prohibitive if the source-specific data models are complex,…

Many scientific investigations require that the values of a set of model parameters are estimated using recorded data. In Bayesian inference, information from both observed data and prior knowledge is combined to update model parameters…

This paper develops some objective priors for certain parameters of the bivariate normal distribution. The parameters considered are the regression coefficient, the generalized variance, and the ratio of the conditional variance of one…

It is often claimed that Bayesian methods, in particular Bayes factor methods for hypothesis testing, can deal with optional stopping. We first give an overview, using elementary probability theory, of three different mathematical meanings…

For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations…

Full Bayesian posteriors are rarely analytically tractable, which is why real-world Bayesian inference heavily relies on approximate techniques. Approximations generally differ from the true posterior and require diagnostic tools to assess…

The two key issues of modern Bayesian statistics are: (i) establishing principled approach for distilling statistical prior that is consistent with the given data from an initial believable scientific prior; and (ii) development of a…

We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…

Spurred on by recent successes in causal inference competitions, Bayesian nonparametric (and high-dimensional) methods have recently seen increased attention in the causal inference literature. In this paper, we present a comprehensive…

This paper proposes a Bayesian method for estimating the parameters of a normal distribution when only limited summary statistics (sample mean, minimum, maximum, and sample size) are available. To estimate the parameters of a normal…

Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian…