相关论文: A critical look at risk assessments for global cat…

Recent papers by Busza et al. and Dar et al. have considered empirical bounds on the risk of producing a hypothetical stable negatively charged strangelet at the Brookhaven relativistic heavy ion collider (RHIC) experiments, and thereby…

Some risks have extremely high stakes. For example, a worldwide pandemic or asteroid impact could potentially kill more than a billion people. Comfortingly, scientific calculations often put very low probabilities on the occurrence of such…

There is a curious absence of legal constraints on U.S. government agencies undertaking potentially risky scientific research. Some of these activities may present a risk of killing millions or even destroying the planet. Current law leaves…

We discuss speculative disaster scenarios inspired by hypothetical new fundamental processes that might occur in high energy relativistic heavy ion collisions. We estimate the parameters relevant to black hole production; we find that they…

he evaluation of the impact of actions undertaken is essential in management. This paper assesses the impact of efforts considered to mitigate risk and create safe environments on a global scale. We measure this impact by looking at the…

The current philosophy of impact hazard considers the danger from small asteroids negligible. However, several facts claim for a revision of this philosophy. In this paper, some of these facts are reviewed and discussed. It is worth noting…

The radiological characterization of contaminated elements (walls, grounds, objects) from nuclear facilities often suffers from a too small number of measurements. In order to determine risk prediction bounds on the level of contamination,…

We propose a new method to define anomaly scores and apply this to particle physics collider events. Anomalies can be either rare, meaning that these events are a minority in the normal dataset, or different, meaning they have values that…

The proliferation of space debris in LEO has become a major concern for the space industry. With the growing interest in space exploration, the prediction of potential collisions between objects in orbit has become a crucial issue. It is…

Survivorship analysis allows to statistically analyze situations that can be modeled as waiting times to an event. These waiting times are characterized by the cumulative hazard rate, which can be estimated by the Nelson-Aalen estimator or…

Machine learning models present a risk of adversarial attack when deployed in production. Quantifying the contributing factors and uncertainties using empirical measures could assist the industry with assessing the risk of downloading and…

Shrinkage estimation in a meta-analysis framework may be used to facilitate dynamical borrowing of information. This framework might be used to analyze a new study in the light of previous data, which might differ in their design (e.g., a…

Hazard serves as a pivotal estimand in both practical applications and methodological frameworks. However, its causal interpretation poses notable challenges, including inherent selection biases and ill-defined populations to be compared…

We study the aggregation of two risks when the marginal distributions are known and the dependence structure is unknown, under the additional constraint that one risk is smaller than or equal to the other. Risk aggregation problems with the…

The safety of collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was studied in 2003 by the LHC Safety Study Group, who concluded that they presented no danger. Here we review their 2003 analysis in light of additional experimental results and…

Hazardous asteroid has been one of the concerns for humankind as fallen asteroid on earth could cost a huge impact on the society.Monitoring these objects could help predict future impact events, but such efforts are hindered by the large…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

A fundamental theoretical limitation undermines current disaster risk models: existing approaches suffer from two critical constraints. First, conventional damage prediction models remain predominantly deterministic, relying on fixed…

ESA and NASA maintain asteroid hazard lists that contain all known asteroids with a non zero chance of colliding with the Earth in the future. Some software tools exist that are, either, capable of calculating the impact points of those…

In 2020, over 60% of launches to low Earth orbit resulted in one or more rocket bodies being abandoned in orbit and eventually returning to Earth in an uncontrolled manner. When they do so, between 20 and 40% of their mass survives the heat…