相关论文: Artificial Agents and Speculative Bubbles

This paper develops a dynamic equilibrium model where agents exhibit a strong form of belief heterogeneity: they disagree about zero probability events. It is shown that, somewhat surprisingly, equilibrium exists in this setting, and that…

We present a dynamical model for the price evolution of financial assets. The model is based in a two level structure. In the first stage one finds an agent-based model that describes the present state of the investors' beliefs,…

The problem of investing into a cryptocurrency market requires good understanding of the processes that regulate the price of the currency. In this paper we offer a view of a cryptocurrency market as an environment for realization of a…

In retrospect, the experimental findings on competitive market behavior called for a revival of the old, classical, view of competition as a collective higgling and bargaining process (as opposed to price-taking behaviors) founded on…

This paper aims to provide a simple modelling of speculative bubbles and derive some quantitative properties of its dynamical evolution. Starting from a description of individual speculative behaviours, we build and study a second order…

We document and analyze the empirical facts concerning one of the clearest evidence of speculation in financial trading as observed in the postage collection stamp market. We unravel some of the mechanisms of speculative behavior which…

We propose that a tree-like hierarchical structure represents a simple and effective way to model the emergent behaviour of financial markets, especially markets where there exists a pronounced intersection between social media influences…

We show that infinite divisibility of a trading commodity leads to a self-sustained price bubble when traders use adaptive investment strategies. The adaptive strategy can be viewed as a psychological response of a trader to the situation…

Designing a financial market that works well is very important for developing and maintaining an advanced economy, but is not easy because changing detailed rules, even ones that seem trivial, sometimes causes unexpected large impacts and…

Some investors say increasing investors with the same strategy decreasing their profits per an investor. On the other hand, some investors using technical analysis used to use same strategy and parameters with other investors, and say that…

The speculation game is an agent-based toy model to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. Our model has achieved the reproduction of 10 of the well-known stylized facts for financial time series. However, there is also a…

A numerical agent-based spin model of financial markets, based on the Potts model from statistical mechanics, with a novel interpretation of the spin variable (as regards financial-market models) is presented. In this model, a value of the…

A rational bubble is a situation in which the asset price exceeds its fundamental value defined by the present discounted value of dividends in a rational equilibrium model. We discuss the recent development of the theory of rational…

We introduce a model of super-exponential financial bubbles with two assets (risky and risk-free), in which rational investors and noise traders co-exist. Rational investors form expectations on the return and risk of a risky asset and…

The history of research in finance and economics has been widely impacted by the field of Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE). While at the same time being popular among natural science researchers for its proximity to the successful…

We study asset price bubbles in market models with proportional transaction costs $\lambda\in (0,1)$ and finite time horizon $T$ in the setting of [49]. By following [28], we define the fundamental value $F$ of a risky asset $S$ as the…

Different agents need to make a prediction. They observe identical data, but have different models: they predict using different explanatory variables. We study which agent believes they have the best predictive ability -- as measured by…

We construct a statistical indicator for the detection of short-term asset price bubbles based on the information content of bid and ask market quotes for plain vanilla put and call options. Our construction makes use of the martingale…

This paper is intended to explain, in simple terms, some of the mechanisms and agents common to multiagent financial market simulations. We first discuss the necessity to include an exogenous price time series ("the fundamental value") for…

We are looking for the agent-based treatment of the financial markets considering necessity to build bridges between microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, phenomenological modeling. The acknowledgment that agent-based modeling…