相关论文: Lexicographic probability, conditional probability…
A nonmonotonic logic of thresholded generalizations is presented. Given propositions A and B from a language L and a positive integer k, the thresholded generalization A=>B{k} means that the conditional probability P(B|A) falls short of one…
By probabilistic logic I mean a normative theory of belief that explains how a body of evidence affects one's degree of belief in a possible hypothesis. A new axiomatization of such a theory is presented which avoids a finite additivity…
Any strategy and prior probability together are a coherent conditional probability that can be extended, generally not in a unique way, to a full conditional probability. The corresponding class of extensions is studied and a closed form…
The evaluation of probabilistic forecasts plays a central role both in the interpretation and in the use of forecast systems and their development. Probabilistic scores (scoring rules) provide statistical measures to assess the quality of…
Conditional copulas are flexible statistical tools that couple joint conditional and marginal conditional distributions. In a linear regression setting with more than one covariate and two dependent outcomes, we propose the use of additive…
We study the complexity of satisfiability problems in probabilistic and causal reasoning. Given random variables $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ over finite domains, the basic terms are probabilities of propositional formulas over atomic events $X_i =…
We develop a complexity theory for approximate real computations. We first produce a theory for exact computations but with condition numbers. The input size depends on a condition number, which is not assumed known by the machine. The…
We analyze the validity of Bell and Kochen-Specker theorems under local (or noncontextual) realism but avoiding an assumption of the existence of a joint probability distribution for incompatible observables. We formulate a realist model…
We propose a formalization of the three-tier causal hierarchy of association, intervention, and counterfactuals as a series of probabilistic logical languages. Our languages are of strictly increasing expressivity, the first capable of…
Propensity score matching is a tool for causal inference in non-randomized studies that allows for conditioning on large sets of covariates. The use of propensity scores in the social sciences is currently experiencing a tremendous…
Plausible reasoning concerns situations whose inherent lack of precision is not quantified; that is, there are no degrees or levels of precision, and hence no use of numbers like probabilities. A hopefully comprehensive set of principles…
We review the class of species sampling models (SSM). In particular, we investigate the relation between the exchangeable partition probability function (EPPF) and the predictive probability function (PPF). It is straightforward to define a…
We investigate the minimum cases for realtime probabilistic machines that can define uncountably many languages with bounded error. We show that logarithmic space is enough for realtime PTMs on unary languages. On binary case, we follow the…
A likelihood order is defined over linear subspaces of a finite dimensional Hilbert space. It is shown that such an order that satisfies some plausible axioms can be represented by a quantum probability in two cases: pure state and uniform…
A probabilistic structure on sequential dynamical systems is introduced here, the new model will be called Probabilistic Sequential Network, PSN. The morphisms of Probabilistic Sequential Networks are defined using two algebraic conditions.…
We obtain a set of necessary and sufficient conditions for $| \bar{N}, p_{n} |_{k} $ to imply $|\bar{N}, q_{n} |_{s}$ for $1 < k \leq s < \infty$. Using this result we establish several inclusion theorems as well as conditions for the…
Probability is distinguished into two kinds: physical and epistemic, also, but less accurately, called objective and subjective. Simple postulates are given for physical probability, the only novel one being a locality condition. Translated…
This study has the purpose of addressing four questions that lie at the base of the probability theory and statistics, and includes two main steps. As first, we conduct the textual analysis of the most significant works written by eminent…
The interrelations between various classes of convergence spaces defined by countability conditions are studied. Remarkably, they all find characterizations in the usual space of ultrafilters in terms of classical topological properties.…
Probability metrics constitute an important tool in probability theory and statistics \cite{DKS91}, \cite{R91}, \cite{Z83} as they are specific metrics on spaces of random variables which, by satisfying an extra condition, concord well with…