相关论文: Evaluating Defaults

Diffusion in a linear potential in the presence of position-dependent killing is used to mimic a default process. Different assumptions regarding transport coefficients, initial conditions, and elasticity of the killing measure lead to…

We view the syntax-based approaches to default reasoning as a model-based diagnosis problem, where each source giving a piece of information is considered as a component. It is formalized in the ATMS framework (each source corresponds to an…

Conformal prediction, which makes no distributional assumptions about the data, has emerged as a powerful and reliable approach to uncertainty quantification in practical applications. The nonconformity measure used in conformal prediction…

A fundamental question asked in modal logic is whether a given theory is consistent. But consistent with what? A typical way to address this question identifies a choice of background knowledge axioms (say, S4, D, etc.) and then shows the…

Likelihood-based methods of statistical inference provide a useful general methodology that is appealing, as a straightforward asymptotic theory can be applied for their implementation. It is important to assess the relationships between…

We consider an analyst whose goal is to identify a subject's utility function through revealed preference analysis. We argue the analyst's preference about which experiments to run should adhere to three normative principles: The first,…

Nonparametric series regression often involves specification search over the tuning parameter, i.e., evaluating estimates and confidence intervals with a different number of series terms. This paper develops pointwise and uniform inferences…

We study situations where a group of voters need to take a collective decision over a number of public issues, with the goal of getting a result that reflects the voters' opinions in a proportional manner. Our focus is on interconnected…

Among the various forms of reasoning studied in the context of artificial intelligence, qualitative reasoning makes it possible to infer new knowledge in the context of imprecise, incomplete information without numerical values. In this…

Log-linear models are typically fitted to contingency table data to describe and identify the relationship between different categorical variables. However, the data may include observed zero cell entries. The presence of zero cell entries…

We define an extension of predicate logic, called Binding Logic, where variables can be bound in terms and in propositions. We introduce a notion of model for this logic and prove a soundness and completeness theorem for it. This theorem is…

The consultative papers for the Basel II Accord require rating systems to provide a ranking of obligors in the sense that the rating categories indicate the creditworthiness in terms of default probabilities. As a consequence, the default…

We extend description logics (DLs) with non-monotonic reasoning features. We start by investigating a notion of defeasible subsumption in the spirit of defeasible conditionals as studied by Kraus, Lehmann and Magidor in the propositional…

In response to a concern raised by Horty, this paper develops a two-tiered, preference-based semantic framework for modeling defeasible conditional obligations. The paper extends a Hansson-Lewis style preference semantics for dyadic deontic…

In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

Monotonicity and recursivity are central assumptions in intertemporal consumption problems under ambiguity. We show that monotone recursive preferences admit both a recursive and an ex-ante representation, and that the certainty equivalent…

We study approximation in the unit interval by rational numbers whose numerators are selected randomly with certain probabilities. Previous work showed that an analogue of Khintchine's Theorem holds in a similar random model and raised the…

In the present paper, the existence and multiplicity problems of extensions are addressed. The focus is on extension of the stable type. The main result of the paper is an elegant characterization of the existence and multiplicity of…

Predictive inference requires balancing statistical accuracy against informational complexity, yet the choice of complexity measure is usually imposed rather than derived. We treat econometric objects as predictive rules, mappings from…