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Many methods have been proposed to quantify the predictive uncertainty associated with the outputs of deep neural networks. Among them, ensemble methods often lead to state-of-the-art results, though they require modifications to the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-05-11 Zhiyun Lu , Eugene Ie , Fei Sha

Machine learning algorithms relying on deep neural networks recently allowed a great leap forward in artificial intelligence. Despite the popularity of their applications, the efficiency of these algorithms remains largely unexplained from…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2020-03-24 Marylou Gabrié

The main difficulty that arises in the analysis of most machine learning algorithms is to handle, analytically and numerically, a large number of interacting random variables. In this Ph.D manuscript, we revisit an approach based on the…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2021-03-11 Benjamin Aubin

Many statistical applications involve models for which it is difficult to evaluate the likelihood, but from which it is relatively easy to sample. Approximate Bayesian computation is a likelihood-free method for implementing Bayesian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-29 Wentao Li , Paul Fearnhead

This paper proposes a new Bayesian machine learning model that can be applied to large datasets arising in macroeconomics. Our framework sums over many simple two-component location mixtures. The transition between components is determined…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-12-05 Florian Huber

Bayesian methods are developed for the multivariate nonparametric regression problem where the domain is taken to be a compact Riemannian manifold. In terms of the latter, the underlying geometry of the manifold induces certain symmetries…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Jean-François Angers , Peter T. Kim

In this paper we extend existing Bayesian methods for variable selection in Gaussian process regression, to select both the regression terms and the active covariates in the spatial correlation structure. We then use the estimated posterior…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-01-05 Ofir Harari , David M. Steinberg

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-02-21 Francesco Bartolucci , Luisa Scaccia , Alessio Farcomeni

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-06 Martin Jankowiak

Bayesian analysis is a framework for parameter estimation that applies even in uncertainty regimes where the commonly used local (frequentist) analysis based on the Cram\'er-Rao bound is not well defined. In particular, it applies when no…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-03-17 Simon Morelli , Ayaka Usui , Elizabeth Agudelo , Nicolai Friis

We address the problem of providing inference from a Bayesian perspective for parameters selected after viewing the data. We present a Bayesian framework for providing inference for selected parameters, based on the observation that…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-03-13 Daniel Yekutieli

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

The article addresses a long-standing open problem on the justification of using variational Bayes methods for parameter estimation. We provide general conditions for obtaining optimal risk bounds for point estimates acquired from…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-12-27 Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya , Yun Yang

The mean field algorithm is a widely used approximate inference algorithm for graphical models whose exact inference is intractable. In each iteration of mean field, the approximate marginals for each variable are updated by getting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2014-10-23 Yujia Li , Richard Zemel

Bayesian nonparametric regression under a rescaled Gaussian process prior offers smoothness-adaptive function estimation with near minimax-optimal error rates. Hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with stochastic variable…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-12-15 Sheng Jiang , Surya T. Tokdar

We consider Bayesian model selection in generalized linear models that are high-dimensional, with the number of covariates p being large relative to the sample size n, but sparse in that the number of active covariates is small compared to…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-12-26 Rina Foygel , Mathias Drton

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-03-15 David T. Frazier , David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi , Robert Kohn

The asymmetric simple exclusion process with random-force disorder is studied within the mean field approximation. The stationary current through a domain with reversed bias is analyzed and the results are found to be in accordance with…

无序系统与神经网络 · 物理学 2015-05-30 Róbert Juhász

Unsupervised learning requiring only raw data is not only a fundamental function of the cerebral cortex, but also a foundation for a next generation of artificial neural networks. However, a unified theoretical framework to treat sensory…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-09-09 Haiping Huang

We develop Bayesian models for density regression with emphasis on discrete outcomes. The problem of density regression is approached by considering methods for multivariate density estimation of mixed scale variables, and obtaining…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-08-14 Georgios Papageorgiou