相关论文: Earthquake forecasting and its verification

We introduce a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction based on the concept of selforganization of seismically active fault networks. That approach is named "Reverse Detection of Precursors" (RDP), since it considers precursors in…

In earthquake source inversions aimed at understanding diverse fault activities on earthquake faults using seismic observation data, uncertainties in velocity structure models are typically not considered. As a result, biases and…

We present a scheme by which a probabilistic forecasting system whose predictions have poor probabilistic calibration may be recalibrated by incorporating past performance information to produce a new forecasting system that is demonstrably…

Endurance time method is a time history dynamic analysis in which structures are subjected to predesigned intensifying excitations. This method provides a tool for response prediction that correlates structural responses to the intensity of…

The imminent WHEN earthquake predictions are based on the correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the…

Without rigorous attention to the completeness of earthquake catalogs, claims of new discoveries or forecasting skills cannot be deemed credible. Therefore, estimating the completeness magnitude (Mc) is a critical step. Among various…

Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process that involves transforming a set of incoherent forecasts into coherent forecasts which satisfy a given set of linear constraints for a multivariate time series. In this paper we extend…

Induced seismicity has emerged as a source of a significant earthquake hazard associated with recent development of unconventional energy resources. Therefore, it is imperative to develop stochastic models that can accurately describe the…

For decades, classical point process models, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, have been widely used for forecasting the event times and locations of earthquakes. Recent advances have led to Neural Point Processes…

Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…

Vital signs, such as heart rate and blood pressure, are critical indicators of patient health and are widely used in clinical monitoring and decision-making. While deep learning models have shown promise in forecasting these signals, their…

Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for investigating the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, seismicity patterns have complicated characteristics due to heterogeneous geology and stresses, for which…

Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of…

To determine the regular or chaotic nature of the orbits in dynamical systems can be quite an issue. In this article, following Vozikis et al. (2000), we propose a new tool, namely, the Power Spectrum Indicator (PSI), $\psi^2$, that enables…

Post-earthquake hazard and impact estimation are critical for effective disaster response, yet current approaches face significant limitations. Traditional models employ fixed parameters regardless of geographical context, misrepresenting…

We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global catalogs: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. These distributions are required to develop the number test for forecasts of future seismic…

For earthquake-resistant design, engineering seismologists employ time-history analysis for nonlinear simulations. The nonstationary stochastic method previously developed by Pousse et al. (2006) has been updated. This method has the…

In the dynamic cyber threat landscape, effective decision-making under uncertainty is crucial for maintaining robust information security. This paper introduces the Cyber Resilience Index (CRI), a threat-informed probabilistic approach to…

Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative…

Accurate conditional prediction in the regression setting plays an important role in many real-world problems. Typically, a point prediction often falls short since no attempt is made to quantify the prediction accuracy. Classically, under…