相关论文: Earthquake forecasting and its verification

Recent large-magnitude earthquakes have demonstrated the damaging consequences of soil liquefaction and reinforced the need to understand and plan for liquefaction hazards at a regional scale. In the United States, the Pacific Northwest is…

Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated with log-likelihood scores of the full distribution P(n) of earthquake numbers, yet heavy tails and out-of-range observations can bias model ranking. We develop a tail-aware…

The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…

If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…

We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic…

This entry in the Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, Springer present a summary of some of the concepts and calculational tools that have been developed in attempts to apply statistical physics approaches to seismology. We…

This study evaluates the performance of the area-based, district heatwave forecasts that drive the Australian heatwave warning service. The analysis involves using a recently developed approach of scoring multicategorical forecasts using…

This study introduces the long-range Ising model from statistical mechanics to the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework for regional seismic damage analysis. The application of the PBEE framework at a regional scale…

Earthquake monitoring by seismic networks typically involves a workflow consisting of phase detection/picking, association, and location tasks. In recent years, the accuracy of these individual stages has been improved through the use of…

The association of seismic wave arrivals with causative earthquakes becomes progressively more challenging as arrival detection methods become more sensitive, and particularly when earthquake rates are high. For instance, seismic waves…

Earthquakes are a complex spatiotemporal phenomenon, the underlying mechanism for which is still not fully understood despite decades of research and analysis. We propose and develop a network approach to earthquake events. In this network,…

Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density…

We propose a network architecture capable of reliably estimating uncertainty of regression based predictions without sacrificing accuracy. The current state-of-the-art uncertainty algorithms either fall short of achieving prediction…

A method that exactly knows the earthquakes beforehand and can generalize them cannot still been developed. However, earthquakes are tried to be predicted through numerous methods. One of these methods, artificial neural networks give…

Earthquakes can be detected by matching spatial patterns or phase properties from 1-D seismic waves. Current earthquake detection methods, such as waveform correlation and template matching, have difficulty detecting anomalous earthquakes…

We present the "condensation" method that exploits the heterogeneity of the probability distribution functions (PDF) of event locations to improve the spatial information content of seismic catalogs. The method reduces the size of seismic…

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in various real-world applications and has attracted significant attention in recent decades. While recent methods have achieved remarkable accuracy by incorporating advanced inductive biases and…

This paper addresses the possibility of using robust control theory for preventing earthquakes through fluid injections in the earth's crust. The designed robust controllers drive aseismically a fault system to a new equilibrium point of…

We present a method for locating the seismic event epicenters without assuming an Earth model of the seismic velocity structure, based on the linear relationship between $\log R$ and $\log t$ (where $R$ is the radius of spherical P wave…

As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity based on interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence…