相关论文: Earthquake forecasting and its verification

The safety and resilience of civil infrastructure systems are increasingly threatened by compounded risks from various hazard events and structural deterioration due to environmental stressors. This study presents a comprehensive…

Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…

Developing a rapid, but also reliable and efficient, method for classifying the seismic damage potential of buildings constructed in countries with regions of high seismicity is always at the forefront of modern scientific research. Such a…

We evaluate the forecasting performance of a deep learning model, originally introduced as a pattern-extraction framework, that operates on the spatiotemporal evolution of seismic b-values in a short-term forecasting context. Model output…

This paper presents a novel framework for full-waveform seismic source inversion using simulation-based inference (SBI). Traditional probabilistic approaches often rely on simplifying assumptions about data errors, which we show can lead to…

We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law…

Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this…

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from…

A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake…

Earthquake Early Warning state of the art systems rely on a network of sensors connected to a fusion center in a client-server paradigm. Instead, we propose moving computation to the edge, with detector nodes that probe the environment and…

We examine the applicability of modern neural network architectures to the midterm prediction of earthquakes. Our data-based classification model aims to predict if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold takes place at a given…

We develop a statistical method for identifying induced seismicity from large datasets and apply the method to decades of wastewater disposal and seismicity data in California and Oklahoma. The method is robust against a variety of…

Forecasting accuracy in highly uncertain environments is challenging due to the stochastic nature of systems. Deterministic forecasting provides only point estimates and cannot capture potential outcomes. Therefore, probabilistic…

We present a novel approach for resolving modes of rupture directivity in large populations of earthquakes. A seismic spectral decomposition technique is used to first produce relative measurements of radiated energy for earthquakes in a…

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…

The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the…

Any periodic variations of earthquake occurrence rates in response to small, known, periodic stress variations provide important opportunities to learn about the earthquake nucleation process. Yet, reliable detection of earthquake…

Here a method is presented for detecting precursors of earthquakes from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. Regional Entropy of Seismic Information, a quantity representing the average influence of an earthquake in the…

Regressions are commonly used in environmental science and economics to identify causal or associative relationships between variables. In these settings, remote sensing-derived map products increasingly serve as sources of variables,…

Bayesian inference represents a principled way to incorporate Earth structure uncertainty in full-waveform moment tensor inversions, but traditional approaches generally require significant approximations that risk biasing the resulting…