相关论文: Forecast and Control of Epidemics in a Globalized …

Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…

The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is still threatening the world because of a possible resurgence. In the current situation that effective medical treatments such as antiviral drugs are not discovered yet, dynamical…

Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…

The effect of spatial correlations on the spread of infectious diseases was investigated using a stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Recovered) model on complex networks. It was found that in addition to the reduction of the effective…

The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior…

Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…

A simplified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model and a small-world model are applied to analyse the spread and control of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) for Hong Kong in early 2003. From data available in mid April…

We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…

Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…

A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…

A generalization of the standard susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) stochastic model for epidemics in sparse random networks is introduced which incorporates contact tracing in addition to random screening. We propose a deterministic…

This paper presents a critical analysis of the literature and perspective research ideas for modeling the epidemics caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. It goes beyond deterministic population dynamics to consider several key complexity features…

We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…

During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models of epidemic spreading have emerged as powerful tools to produce valuable predictions of the evolution of the pandemic, helping public health authorities decide which intervention…

Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…

Social networks are an important infrastructure for information, viruses and innovations propagation. Since users behavior has influenced by other users activity, some groups of people would be made regard to similarity of users interests.…

We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…

We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…

Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach…