相关论文: Stochastics theory of log-periodic patterns

The first chapter concerns monotype population models. We first study general birth and death processes and we give non-explosion and extinction criteria, moment computations and a pathwise representation. We then show how different scales…

A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…

Recent studies of cluster distribution in various ecosystems revealed Pareto statistics for the size of spatial colonies. These results were supported by cellular automata simulations that yield robust criticality for endogenous pattern…

We introduce and analyse an individual-based evolutionary model, in which a population of genetically diverse organisms compete with each other for limited resources. Through theoretical analysis and stochastic simulations, we show that the…

We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By representing system evolution as a succession of temporally…

We review the mathematical formalism underlying the modelling of stochasticity in biological systems. Beginning with a description of the system in terms of its basic constituents, we derive the mesoscopic equations governing the dynamics…

We consider a generic class of stochastic particle-based models whose state at an instant in time is described by a set of continuous degrees of freedom (e.g. positions), and the length of this set changes stochastically in time due to…

Population dynamics reflects an underlying birth-death process, where the rates associated with different events may depend on external environmental conditions and on the population density. A whole family of simple and popular…

In this paper, we review recent results of ours concerning branching processes with general lifetimes and neutral mutations, under the infinitely many alleles model, where mutations can occur either at birth of individuals or at a constant…

We study stochastic particle systems on a complete graph and derive effective mean-field rate equations in the limit of diverging system size, which are also known from cluster aggregation models. We establish the propagation of chaos under…

Studying particle-laden flows is essential to understand diverse physical processes such as rain formation in clouds, pathogen transmission, and pollutant dispersal. Distinct clustering patterns are formed in such flows with particles of…

Process discovery algorithms automatically extract process models from event logs, but high variability often results in complex and hard-to-understand models. To mitigate this issue, trace clustering techniques group process executions…

We introduce a new factor model for log volatilities that performs dimensionality reduction and considers contributions globally through the market, and locally through cluster structure and their interactions. We do not assume a-priori the…

An approach to analyse the properties of a particle system is to compare it with different processes to understand when one of them is larger than other ones. The main technique for that is coupling, which may not be easy to construct. We…

Motivated by recent progress on the scaling behavior of entanglement entropy, we study the scaling behavior of the number of clusters crossing the boundary between two subsystems for several classical statistical models in two dimension.…

The stochastic system approach to causality is applied to situations where the risk of death is not negligible. This approach grounds causality on physical laws, distinguishes system and observation and represents the system by multivariate…

We propose a stochastic model for evolution. Births and deaths of species occur with constant probabilities. Each new species is associated with a fitness sampled from the uniform distribution on [0,1]. Every time there is a death event…

In the past few decades considerable effort has been expended in characterizing and modeling financial time series. A number of stylized facts have been identified, and volatility clustering or the tendency toward persistence has emerged as…

The time-dependent relaxation of a dynamical system may exhibit a power-law behavior that is superimposed by log-periodic oscillations. Sornette [Phys. Rep. 297, 239 (1998)] showed that this behavior can be explained by a discrete scale…

In complex systems, events occur at irregular intervals that inherently encode the underlying dynamics of the system. Analyzing the temporal clustering of these events reveals critical insights into the non-random patterns and the temporal…