相关论文: A Quantitative Occam's Razor

This paper explores an approach to Bayesian sample size determination in clinical trials. The approach falls into the category of what is often called "proper Bayesian", in that it does not mix frequentist concepts with Bayesian ones. A…

The aim of this paper is to present a new estimation procedure that can be applied in many statistical frameworks including density and regression and which leads to both robust and optimal (or nearly optimal) estimators. In density…

For the paradigm of the quantum double-slit experiment (DSE), we apply Ockham's Razor to interpret quantum observations and to evaluate terminology associated with wave-particle duality. One finds that the Correspondence Principle (CP),…

The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

This paper investigates the {\em nonasymptotic} properties of Bayes procedures for estimating an unknown distribution from $n$ i.i.d.\ observations. We assume that the prior is supported by a model $(\scr{S},h)$ (where $h$ denotes the…

The method of Maximum (relative) Entropy (ME) is used to translate the information contained in the known form of the likelihood into a prior distribution for Bayesian inference. The argument is guided by intuition gained from the…

Algorithmic statistics considers the following problem: given a binary string $x$ (e.g., some experimental data), find a "good" explanation of this data. It uses algorithmic information theory to define formally what is a good explanation.…

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

The current study aims to examine uncertainty relations for measurements from generalized equiangular tight frames. Informationally overcomplete measurements are a valuable tool in quantum information processing, including tomography and…

We resurrect the infamous harmonic mean estimator for computing the marginal likelihood (Bayesian evidence) and solve its problematic large variance. The marginal likelihood is a key component of Bayesian model selection to evaluate model…

This paper introduces a framework for uncertainty quantification in regression models defined in metric spaces. Leveraging a newly defined notion of homoscedasticity, we develop a conformal prediction algorithm that offers finite-sample…

We classify two types of Hierarchical Bayesian Model found in the literature as Hierarchical Prior Model (HPM) and Hierarchical Stochastic Model (HSM). Then, we focus on studying the theoretical implications of the HSM. Using examples of…

In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for…

We aim to create the highest possible quality of treatment-control matches for categorical data in the potential outcomes framework. Matching methods are heavily used in the social sciences due to their interpretability, but most matching…

In almost every scientific field, an experiment involves collecting data and then analysing it. The analysis stage will often consist in trying to extract some physical parameter and estimating its uncertainty; this is known as Parameter…

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…

Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…

The C statistic is a widely used likelihood-ratio statistic for model fitting and goodness-of-fit assessments with Poisson data in high-energy physics and astrophysics. Although it enjoys convenient asymptotic properties, the statistic is…

In population genetics and other application fields, models with intractable likelihood are common. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) or more generally Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) methods work by simulating instrumental data sets…