相关论文: Quantifying the Uncertainty in the Orbits of Extra…

Uncertainty quantification is one of the most crucial tasks to obtain trustworthy and reliable machine learning models for decision making. However, most research in this domain has only focused on problems with small label spaces and…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

The most successful method used so far to search for extrasolar planets is the radial velocity technique, where periodical shifts on the measured emission from a star provide evidence for an orbiting planet. This method has been used on…

We consider a class of high-dimensional spatial filtering problems, where the spatial locations of observations are unknown and driven by the partially observed hidden signal. This problem is exceptionally challenging as not only is…

We introduce a new method to propagate uncertainties in the beam shapes used to measure the cosmic microwave background to cosmological parameters determined from those measurements. The method, which we call Markov Chain Beam…

We present a Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) forecast for the precision of neutrino mass and cosmological parameter measurements with a Euclid-like galaxy clustering survey. We use a complete perturbation theory model for the galaxy…

Orbit-determination programs find the orbit solution that best fits a set of observations by minimizing the RMS of the residuals of the fit. For near-Earth asteroids, the uncertainty of the orbit solution may be compatible with trajectories…

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

We present EXOFAST, a fast, robust suite of routines written in IDL which is designed to fit exoplanetary transits and radial velocity variations simultaneously or separately, and characterize the parameter uncertainties and covariances…

The Monte Carlo (MC) method is the most common technique used for uncertainty quantification, due to its simplicity and good statistical results. However, its computational cost is extremely high, and, in many cases, prohibitive.…

Exoplanet characterization is one of the main foci of current exoplanetary science. For super-Earths and sub-Neptunes, we mostly rely on mass and radius measurements, which allow to derive the body's mean density and give a rough estimate…

We present orbital elements and mass sums for eighteen visual binary stars of spectral types B to K (five of which are new orbits) with periods ranging from 20 to more than 500 yr. For two double-line spectroscopic binaries with no previous…

Astrometric measurements of stellar systems are becoming significantly more precise and common, with many ground and space-based instruments and missions approaching 1 microarcsecond precision. We examine the multi-wavelength astrometric…

Motivated by the large number of compact extrasolar planetary systems discovered by the Kepler Mission, this paper considers perturbations due to possible additional outer planets. The discovered compact systems sometimes contain multiple…

Recent observational missions have uncovered a significant number of compact multi-exoplanet systems. The tight orbital spacing of these systems has led to much effort being applied to the understanding of their stability; however, a key…

Uncertainty quantification is a critical missing component in radio interferometric imaging that will only become increasingly important as the big-data era of radio interferometry emerges. Statistical sampling approaches to perform…

Transit timing variation (TTV) provides rich information about the mass and orbital properties of exoplanets, which are often obtained by solving an inverse problem via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In this paper, we design a new…

With the recent discoveries of hundreds of extrasolar planets, the search for planets like Earth and life in the universe, is quickly gaining momentum. In the future, large space observatories could directly detect the light scattered from…

We describe work in progress by a collaboration of astronomers and statisticians developing a suite of Bayesian data analysis tools for extrasolar planet (exoplanet) detection, planetary orbit estimation, and adaptive scheduling of…

A general method is presented for estimating the uncertainty in hybrid models of gravitational waveforms from binary black-hole systems with arbitrary physical parameters, and thence the highest allowable initial orbital frequency for a…