相关论文: North Atlantic thermohaline circulation predictabi…
Deep learning-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting methods have demonstrated significant potential and application advantages, as they feature much lower computational cost and faster operation speed than numerical weather prediction…
A molecular dynamics simulation is performed for a supercooled liquid of rigid diatomic molecules. The time-dependent self and collective density correlators of the molecular centers of mass are determined and compared with the predictions…
Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have the potential to be a valuable resource for the Balancing Authority (BA) of the future. Examples of TCLs include household appliances such as air conditioners, water heaters, and refrigerators.…
Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…
Unstable shear layers in environmental and industrial flows roll up into a series of vortices, which often form complex nonlinear merging patterns like pairs and triplets. These patterns crucially determine the subsequent turbulence, mixing…
While numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential for forecasting thunderstorms hours in advance, NWP uncertainty, which increases with lead time, limits the predictability of thunderstorm occurrence. This study investigates how…
Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple…
Natural climate variability, captured through multiple initial condition ensembles, may be comparable to the variability caused by knowledge gaps in future emissions trajectories and in the physical science basis, especially at…
Taiwan's high population and heavy dependence on fossil fuels have led to severe air pollution, with the most prevalent greenhouse gas being carbon dioxide (CO2). There-fore, this study presents a reproducible and comprehensive case study…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly destructive and inherently uncertain weather systems. Ensemble forecasting helps quantify these uncertainties, yet traditional systems are constrained by high computational costs and limited capability to…
Thermal atmospheric tides have a strong impact on the rotation of terrestrial planets. They can lock these planets into an asynchronous rotation state of equilibrium. We aim at characterizing the dependence of the tidal torque resulting…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…
Accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice from subseasonal to seasonal scales has been a major scientific effort with fundamental challenges at play. In addition to physics-based earth system models, researchers have been applying multiple…
We discuss the applicability of quasilinear-type approximations for a turbulent system with a large range of spatial and temporal scales. We consider a paradigm fluid system of rotating convection with a vertical and horizontal temperature…
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal…
Complex network theory provides an elegant and powerful framework to statistically investigate different types of systems such as society, brain or the structure of local and long-range dynamical interrelationships in the climate system.…
The atmospheric circulation models are deduced from the very complex atmospheric circulation models based on the actual background and meteorological data. The models are able to show features of atmospheric circulation and are easy to be…
Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…
The predictability of the atmosphere at short and long time scales, associated with the coupling to the ocean, is explored in a new version of the Modular Arbitrary-Order Ocean-Atmosphere Model (MAOOAM), based on a 2-layer quasi-geostrophic…