相关论文: North Atlantic thermohaline circulation predictabi…
In this article, we propose a data-driven methodology for combining the solutions of a set of competing turbulence models. The individual model predictions are linearly combined for providing an ensemble solution accompanied by estimates of…
The predictability of a coupled system composed by a coupled reduced-order extratropical ocean-atmosphere model forced by a low-order 3-variable tropical recharge-discharge model, is explored with emphasis on the long term forecasting…
A combination of analytical and numerical techniques are used to efficiently determine the qualitative and quantitative behaviour of a one-basin zonally averaged thermohaline circulation ocean model. In contrast to earlier studies which use…
Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model…
Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…
We formulate and study a low-order nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model with an emphasis on the impact of radiative and heat fluxes and of the frictional coupling between the two components. This model version extends a previous…
It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping…
Time-Series Forecasting based on Cumulative Data (TSFCD) is a crucial problem in decision-making across various industrial scenarios. However, existing time-series forecasting methods often overlook two important characteristics of…
Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making and differentiates between externally forced change and…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…
Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…
Ensemble forecasting is a technique devised to palliate sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems. The basic idea to avoid this sensitivity is to run the model many times under several slightly-different initial…
Accurate prediction of atmospheric optical turbulence in localized environments is essential for estimating the performance of free-space optical systems. Macro-meteorological models developed to predict turbulent effects in one environment…
Climate models are often affected by long-term drift that is revealed by the evolution of global variables such as the ocean temperature or the surface air temperature. This spurious trend reduces the fidelity to initial conditions and has…
Thermal conditions in the urban canopy exhibit stochastic variability driven by varied radiative fluxes and turbulent wind fields, requiring probabilistic rather than deterministic prediction methods. This study presents a probabilistic…
Spatiotemporal chaotic systems are difficult to characterize in a model-free manner because of their high dimensionality, strong nonlinearity, and sensitivity to initial conditions. Coupled map lattices, as a representative class of…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
The operational reliability of a high performance marine vessel depends critically on the health of its marine propulsion systems, which are increasingly subjected to diverse operational loads and environmental stressors. This paper…
Predictions of the future state of the Earth's atmosphere suffer from the consequences of chaos: numerical weather forecast models quickly diverge from observations as uncertainty in the initial state is amplified by nonlinearity. One…