相关论文: A computationally-tractable measure of global sens…

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In…

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

In this paper, we study efficient approximate sampling for probability distributions known up to normalization constants. We specifically focus on a problem class arising in Bayesian inference for large-scale inverse problems in science and…

This paper extends the work of Clarke [1] on the Bayesian foundations of the biomagnetic inverse problem. It derives expressions for the expectation and variance of the a posteriori source current probability distribution given a prior…

The Bayesian approach to machine learning amounts to computing posterior distributions of random variables from a probabilistic model of how the variables are related (that is, a prior distribution) and a set of observations of variables.…

Bayesian paradigm takes advantage of well fitting complicated survival models and feasible computing in survival analysis owing to the superiority in tackling the complex censoring scheme, compared with the frequentist paradigm. In this…

When using Bayesian inference to support conservative software reliability assessments, it is useful to consider a collection of Bayesian inference problems, with the aim of determining the worst-case value (from this collection) for a…

We develop a new efficient methodology for Bayesian global sensitivity analysis for large-scale multivariate data. The focus is on computationally demanding models with correlated variables. A multivariate Gaussian process is used as a…

As inductive inference and machine learning methods in computer science see continued success, researchers are aiming to describe ever more complex probabilistic models and inference algorithms. It is natural to ask whether there is a…

One of the fundamental challenges in drawing causal inferences from observational studies is that the assumption of no unmeasured confounding is not testable from observed data. Therefore, assessing sensitivity to this assumption's…

Posterior distributions arising in ill-posed Bayesian inverse problems are often both analytically intractable and highly sensitive to parameters of the chosen prior family. We aim to understand the sensitivity of intractable posterior…

The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…

With the advent of high-performance computing, Bayesian methods are increasingly popular tools for the quantification of uncertainty throughout science and industry. Since these methods impact the making of sometimes critical decisions in…

This work introduces a sampling method capable of solving Bayesian inverse problems in function space. It does not assume the log-concavity of the likelihood, meaning that it is compatible with nonlinear inverse problems. The method…

In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…

We propose a novel approach to Bayesian analysis that is provably robust to outliers in the data and often has computational advantages over standard methods. Our technique is based on splitting the data into non-overlapping subgroups,…

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

We propose a novel computationally low-cost method for estimating a general predictive measure of generalised Bayesian inference. The proposed method utilises posterior covariance and provides estimators of the Gibbs and the plugin…

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…