相关论文: A Post-Processing Conformal Prediction Approach fo…

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…

Conformal prediction (CP) produces prediction regions with finite-sample, distribution free coverage guarantees, but its interpretation as a quantitative uncertainty tool is often left implicit. We develop a category-theoretic approach that…

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the…

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…

Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

The deployment of safe and trustworthy machine learning systems, and particularly complex black box neural networks, in real-world applications requires reliable and certified guarantees on their performance. The conformal prediction…

Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals (PI). We consider here the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is PIs are reported only for individuals selected from an unlabeled test…

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Conformal prediction (CP) is widely presented as distribution-free predictive inference with finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. We argue that CP is best understood as a rank-calibrated descendant of the…

Conformal prediction (CP) provides powerful, distribution-free prediction sets, but its guarantees rely on the exchangeability of training and test data, which is often violated in practice due to covariate shifts. While weighted conformal…