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Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-09 Yuanjie Shi , Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-18 Shuqi Liu , Jianguo Huang , Luke Ong

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. This study explores the application of conformal prediction in scenarios where covariates are missing, which introduces significant challenges for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-09 Jingsen Kong , YIming Liu , Guangren Yang

Conformal methods create prediction bands that control average coverage under no assumptions besides i.i.d. data. Besides average coverage, one might also desire to control conditional coverage, that is, coverage for every new testing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-12-10 Rafael Izbicki , Gilson T. Shimizu , Rafael B. Stern

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are…

计算机科学中的逻辑 · 计算机科学 2024-11-19 Linus Jeary , Tom Kuipers , Mehran Hosseini , Nicola Paoletti

Conformal prediction (CP) transforms any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include (cover) the true label. CP requires exchangeability, a relaxation of the i.i.d. assumption, to obtain a valid distribution-free coverage…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal Prediction (CP) has proven to be an effective post-hoc method for improving the trustworthiness of neural networks by providing prediction sets with finite-sample guarantees. However, under adversarial attacks, classical conformal…

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, generating prediction sets with coverage guarantees. Split conformal prediction relies on labeled data in the calibration procedure. However, the labeled data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-11 Xuanning Zhou , Zihao Shi , Hao Zeng , Xiaobo Xia , Bingyi Jing , Hongxin Wei

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical for trustworthy AI. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees, but its two main variants face complementary limitations. Split CP (SCP)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-20 Weicao Deng , Sangwoo Park , Min Li , Osvaldo Simeone

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-05-31 Chen Xu , Yao Xie

Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-18 Haifeng Wen , Osvaldo Simeone , Hong Xing

Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free uncertainty quantification for machine learning models, yet its interplay with fairness in downstream decision-making remains underexplored. Moving beyond CP as a standalone operation…

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes domains such as scientific discovery and healthcare. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, an…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-30 Siddhartha Laghuvarapu , Rohan Deb , Jimeng Sun

Conformal prediction is widely adopted in uncertainty quantification, due to its post-hoc, distribution-free, and model-agnostic properties. In the realm of modern deep learning, researchers have proposed Feature Conformal Prediction (FCP),…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-03 Zihao Tang , Boyuan Wang , Chuan Wen , Jiaye Teng

This study aims to address the pervasive challenge of quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) without logit-access. Conformal Prediction (CP), known for its model-agnostic and distribution-free features, is a desired…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-04-05 Jiayuan Su , Jing Luo , Hongwei Wang , Lu Cheng

Reliable confidence measures of metrics derived from medical imaging reconstruction pipelines would improve the standard of decision-making in many clinical workflows. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a robust framework for producing…

Conformal prediction methodology has recently been extended to the covariate shift setting, where the distribution of covariates differs between training and test data. While existing results ensure that the prediction sets from these…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-02-09 Mehrdad Pournaderi , Yu Xiang

We develop a predictive inference procedure that combines conformal prediction (CP) with unconditional quantile regression (QR) -- a commonly used tool in econometrics that involves regressing the recentered influence function (RIF) of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-05 Ahmed M. Alaa , Zeshan Hussain , David Sontag