相关论文: Post-Processing Posterior Predictive P-values

The Laplace approximation is a popular method for constructing a Gaussian approximation to the Bayesian posterior and thereby approximating the posterior mean and variance. But approximation quality is a concern. One might consider using…

There is a rich literature proposing methods and establishing asymptotic properties of Bayesian variable selection methods for parametric models, with a particular focus on the normal linear regression model and an increasing emphasis on…

Pearson's correlation is among the mostly widely reported measures of association. The strength of the statistical evidence for linear association is determined by the p-value of a hypothesis test. If the true distribution of a dataset is…

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the…

Predicting with missing inputs challenges even parametric models, as parameter estimation alone is insufficient for prediction on incomplete data. While several works study prediction in linear models, we focus on logistic models, where…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

We introduce a new measure for fair and meaningful comparisons of single-valued output from artificial intelligence based weather prediction (AIWP) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, called potential continuous ranked…

Propensity score matching is a tool for causal inference in non-randomized studies that allows for conditioning on large sets of covariates. The use of propensity scores in the social sciences is currently experiencing a tremendous…

Shapley values have seen widespread use in machine learning as a way to explain model predictions and estimate the importance of covariates. Accurately explaining models is critical in real-world models to both aid in decision making and to…

We study convergence rates of variational posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We formulate general conditions on prior, likelihood, and variational class that characterize the convergence rates. Under…

Performing causal inference in observational studies requires we assume confounding variables are correctly adjusted for. G-computation methods are often used in these scenarios, with several recent proposals using Bayesian versions of…

We are concerned with multiple test problems with composite null hypotheses and the estimation of the proportion $\pi_{0}$ of true null hypotheses. The Schweder-Spj\o tvoll estimator $\hat{\pi}_0$ utilizes marginal $p$-values and only works…

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Likelihood ratio tests are a widely used method in global analyses in particle physics. The computation of the statistical significance (p-value) of these tests is usually done with a simple formula that relies on Wilks' theorem. There are,…

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by…

This paper develops Bayesian sample size formulae for experiments comparing two groups. We assume the experimental data will be analysed in the Bayesian framework, where pre-experimental information from multiple sources can be represented…

Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…

Assigning significance in high-dimensional regression is challenging. Most computationally efficient selection algorithms cannot guard against inclusion of noise variables. Asymptotically valid p-values are not available. An exception is a…

Bayesian analyses are often performed using so-called noninformative priors, with a view to achieving objective inference about unknown parameters on which available data depends. Noninformative priors depend on the relationship of the data…