相关论文: Universal Dynamics of Punctuated Progress

A new delay equation is introduced to describe the punctuated evolution of complex nonlinear systems. A detailed analytical and numerical investigation provides the classification of all possible types of solutions for the dynamics of a…

The dominant narrative of artificial intelligence development assumes that progress is continuous and that capability scales monotonically with model size. We challenge both assumptions. Drawing on punctuated equilibrium theory from…

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly embedded in scientific discovery, yet whether it can anticipate scientific progress remains unclear. To study this question, we introduce a temporally grounded evaluation framework for…

Human achievements are often preceded by repeated attempts that initially fail, yet little is known about the mechanisms governing the dynamics of failure. Here, building on the rich literature on innovation, human dynamics and learning, we…

Complexity science offers a wide range of measures for quantifying unpredictability, structure, and information. Yet, a systematic conceptual organization of these measures is still missing. We present a unified framework that locates…

A computational revolution unleashed the power of artificial neural networks. At the heart of that revolution is automatic differentiation, which calculates the derivative of a performance measure relative to a large number of parameters.…

This paper presents a general theory that aims at explaining timescales observed empirically in technology transitions and predicting those of future transitions. This framework is used further to derive a theory for exploring the dynamics…

Punctuated equilibrium is a mode of evolution in which phenetic change occurs in rapid bursts that are separated by much longer intervals of stasis during which mutations accumulate but no major phenotypic change occurs. Punctuated…

Motion prediction, recently popularized as world models, refers to the anticipation of future agent states or scene evolution, which is rooted in human cognition, bridging perception and decision-making. It enables intelligent systems, such…

The exploration of ultrafast phenomena is a frontier of condensed matter research, where the interplay of theory, computation, and experiment is unveiling new opportunities for understanding and engineering quantum materials. With the…

World record setting has long attracted public interest and scientific investigation. Extremal records summarize the limits of the space explored by a process, and the historical progression of a record sheds light on the underlying…

Many human knowledge systems, such as science, law, and invention, are built on documents and the citations that link them. Citations, while serving multiple purposes, primarily function as a way to explicitly document the use of prior work…

In this work, we attempt to provide a comprehensive granular account of the pace of technological change. More specifically, we survey estimated yearly performance improvement rates for nearly all definable technologies for the first time.…

Gated first-passage processes, where completion depends on both hitting a target and satisfying additional constraints, are prevalent across various fields. Despite their significance, analytical solutions to basic problems remain unknown,…

Participants in recent discussions of AI-related issues ranging from intelligence explosion to technological unemployment have made diverse claims about the nature, pace, and drivers of progress in AI. However, these theories are rarely…

Despite the vast literature on the diffusion of innovations that impacts a broad range of disciplines, our understanding of the abandonment of innovations remains limited yet is essential for a deeper understanding of the innovation…

This research is concerned with evolution equations and their forward-backward discretizations. Our first contribution is an estimation for the distance between iterates of sequences generated by forward-backward schemes, useful in the…

The dynamics of adaptation is difficult to predict because it is highly stochastic even in large populations. The uncertainty emerges from number fluctuations, called genetic drift, arising in the small number of particularly fit…

Clinical decision-making is a feedback system where risk estimates influence treatment, which in turn changes disease trajectories, and both shape clinicians' measurement practices. Static prediction often fails clinically: models trained…

Breakthrough discoveries and inventions involve unexpected combinations of contents including problems, methods, and natural entities, and also diverse contexts such as journals, subfields, and conferences. Drawing on data from tens of…