相关论文: Skew-adaptive conformal prediction

In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent…

Conformal prediction is a powerful post-hoc framework for uncertainty quantification that provides distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, these guarantees crucially rely on the assumption of exchangeability. This assumption is…

We introduce a neural network conformal prediction method for time series that enhances adaptivity in non-stationary environments. Our approach acts as a neural controller designed to achieve desired target coverage, leveraging auxiliary…

Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that…

Forecasting surgical instrument trajectories and predicting the next surgical action recently started to attract attention from the research community. Both these tasks are crucial for automation and assistance in endoscopy surgery. Given…

Conformal Prediction methods have finite-sample distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees. However, they generally do not offer conditional coverage guarantees, which can be important for high-stakes decisions. In this paper, we…

We propose an instance-wise adaptive sampling framework for constructing compact and informative training datasets for supervised learning of inverse problem solutions. Typical learning-based approaches aim to learn a general-purpose…

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

A flexible conformal inference method is developed to construct confidence intervals for the frequencies of queried objects in very large data sets, based on a much smaller sketch of those data. The approach is data-adaptive and requires no…

Smooth backfitting has proven to have a number of theoretical and practical advantages in structured regression. Smooth backfitting projects the data down onto the structured space of interest providing a direct link between data and…

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

While adaptive sensing has provided improved rates of convergence in sparse regression and classification, results in nonparametric regression have so far been restricted to quite specific classes of functions. In this paper, we describe an…

The aim of this paper is to propose an adaptation of the well known adaptive conformal inference (ACI) algorithm to achieve finite-sample coverage guarantees in multi-step ahead time-series forecasting in the online setting. ACI dynamically…

We introduce an estimation method for the scaled skewness coefficient of the sample mean of short and long memory linear processes. This method can be extended to estimate higher moments such as curtosis coefficient of the sample mean. Also…

We develop a general framework for distribution-free predictive inference in regression, using conformal inference. The proposed methodology allows for the construction of a prediction band for the response variable using any estimator of…

While split conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, approaching the stronger property of conditional coverage is essential for reliable uncertainty quantification. Naive conformal scores, however, suffer from poor conditional…

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

The paper is devoted to the problem of estimation of a univariate component in a heteroscedastic nonparametric multiple regression under the mean integrated squared error (MISE) criteria. The aim is to understand how the scale function…

We apply split conformal prediction techniques to regression problems with circular responses by introducing a suitable conformity score, leading to prediction sets with adaptive arc length and finite-sample coverage guarantees for any…

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Previous works often employ temperature scaling to calibrate…