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In this work we propose an adaptive multilevel version of subset simulation to estimate the probability of rare events for complex physical systems. Given a sequence of nested failure domains of increasing size, the rare event probability…

For classification problems with significant class imbalance, subsampling can reduce computational costs at the price of inflated variance in estimating model parameters. We propose a method for subsampling efficiently for logistic…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-09-24 William Fithian , Trevor Hastie

Many Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods leverage gradient information of the potential function of target distribution to explore sample space efficiently. However, computing gradients can often be computationally expensive for large…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-09-24 Ruilin Li , Xin Wang , Hongyuan Zha , Molei Tao

Latent position models are widely used for the analysis of networks in a variety of research fields. In fact, these models possess a number of desirable theoretical properties, and are particularly easy to interpret. However, statistical…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-03-08 Riccardo Rastelli , Florian Maire , Nial Friel

Delayed-acceptance is a technique for reducing computational effort for Bayesian models with expensive likelihoods. Using a delayed-acceptance kernel for Markov chain Monte Carlo can reduce the number of expensive likelihoods evaluations…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , Anthony Lee , Christopher Drovandi

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-04-12 Tiangang Cui , Colin Fox , Michael J O'Sullivan

Recent advances in deep learning have shown that uncertainty estimation is becoming increasingly important in applications such as medical imaging, natural language processing, and autonomous systems. However, accurately quantifying…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-04 Uddeshya Upadhyay , Jae Myung Kim , Cordelia Schmidt , Bernhard Schölkopf , Zeynep Akata

In stochastic simulation, input uncertainty refers to the output variability arising from the statistical noise in specifying the input models. This uncertainty can be measured by a variance contribution in the output, which, in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-20 Henry Lam , Huajie Qian

When statistical analyses consider multiple data sources, Markov melding provides a method for combining the source-specific Bayesian models. Markov melding joins together submodels that have a common quantity. One challenge is that the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-17 Andrew A. Manderson , Robert J. B. Goudie

Uncertainty estimation for unlabeled data is crucial to active learning. With a deep neural network employed as the backbone model, the data selection process is highly challenging due to the potential over-confidence of the model…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-14 Xingjian Li , Pengkun Yang , Yangcheng Gu , Xueying Zhan , Tianyang Wang , Min Xu , Chengzhong Xu

Estimation of a precision matrix (i.e., inverse covariance matrix) is widely used to exploit conditional independence among continuous variables. The influence of abnormal observations is exacerbated in a high dimensional setting as the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-17 Peng Tang , Huijing Jiang , Heeyoung Kim , Xinwei Deng

Intrinsically motivated artificial agents learn advantageous behavior without externally-provided rewards. Previously, it was shown that maximizing mutual information between agent actuators and future states, known as the empowerment…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-05-11 Ruihan Zhao , Kevin Lu , Pieter Abbeel , Stas Tiomkin

Datasets with sheer volume have been generated from fields including computer vision, medical imageology, and astronomy whose large-scale and high-dimensional properties hamper the implementation of classical statistical models. To tackle…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-05-30 Hang Yu , Zhenxing Dou , Zhiwei Chen , Xiaomeng Yan

This paper presents an efficient variational inference framework for deriving a family of structured gaussian process regression network (SGPRN) models. The key idea is to incorporate auxiliary inducing variables in latent functions and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-19 Rui Meng , Herbie Lee , Kristofer Bouchard

We prove the strong consistency and the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a general conditionally heteroscedastic model with $\alpha$-stable innovations. Then, we relax the assumptions and only…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-01-01 Guillaume Lepage

Zero-shot diffusion posterior sampling offers a flexible framework for inverse problems by accommodating arbitrary degradation operators at test time, but incurs high computational cost due to repeated likelihood-guided updates. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-02-10 Léon Zheng , Thomas Hirtz , Yazid Janati , Eric Moulines

Fully robust versions of the elastic net estimator are introduced for linear and logistic regression. The algorithms to compute the estimators are based on the idea of repeatedly applying the non-robust classical estimators to data subsets…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-03-16 Fatma Sevinc Kurnaz , Irene Hoffmann , Peter Filzmoser

Variable selection in the linear regression model takes many apparent faces from both frequentist and Bayesian standpoints. In this paper we introduce a variable selection method referred to as a rescaled spike and slab model. We study the…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 Hemant Ishwaran , J. Sunil Rao

Non-parametric inference for functional data over two-dimensional domains entails additional computational and statistical challenges, compared to the one-dimensional case. Separability of the covariance is commonly assumed to address these…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-19 Tomas Masak , Tomas Rubin , Victor Panaretos

Variational Autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive…