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In this paper, I try to tame "Basu's elephants" (data with extreme selection on observables). I propose new practical large-sample and finite-sample methods for estimating and inferring heterogeneous causal effects (under unconfoundedness)…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-01-20 Ganesh Karapakula

Statistical inference on the explained variation of an outcome by a set of covariates is of particular interest in practice. When the covariates are of moderate to high-dimension and the effects are not sparse, several approaches have been…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-24 Hua Yun Chen

In many statistical problems, the data distribution is specified through a generative process for which the likelihood function is analytically intractable, yet inference on the associated model parameters remains of primary interest. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-01 Haoyu Jiang , Yuexi Wang , Yun Yang

We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-03 Caroline Tatsuoka , Minglei Yang , Dongbin Xiu , Guannan Zhang

Few Bayesian methods for analyzing high-dimensional sparse survival data provide scalable variable selection, effect estimation and uncertainty quantification. Such methods often either sacrifice uncertainty quantification by computing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-06 Michael Komodromos , Eric Aboagye , Marina Evangelou , Sarah Filippi , Kolyan Ray

Unsupervised learning aims at the discovery of hidden structure that drives the observations in the real world. It is essential for success in modern machine learning. Latent variable models are versatile in unsupervised learning and have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-06-13 Furong Huang

This paper presents a significant advancement in the estimation of the Composite Link Model within a penalized likelihood framework, specifically designed to address indirect observations of grouped count data. While the model is effective…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Carlo G. Camarda , María Durbán

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

Penalized logistic regression is extremely useful for binary classification with large number of covariates (higher than the sample size), having several real life applications, including genomic disease classification. However, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-10 Ayanendranath Basu , Abhik Ghosh , María Jaenada , Leandro Pardo

Large-scale Gaussian process models are becoming increasingly important and widely used in many areas, such as, computer experiments, stochastic optimization via simulation, and machine learning using Gaussian processes. The standard…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-08-02 Yongxiang Li , Qiang Zhou , Kwok Leung Tsui , Javier Cabrera

We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-30 Jack Jewson , Jim Q. Smith , Chris Holmes

With the ubiquitous availability of unstructured data, growing attention is paid as how to adjust for selection bias in such non-probability samples. The majority of the robust estimators proposed by prior literature are either fully or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-04-08 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-09 Akash Yadav , Ruda Zhang

We propose a multi-fidelity neural network surrogate sampling method for the uncertainty quantification of physical/biological systems described by ordinary or partial differential equations. We first generate a set of low/high-fidelity…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-05-07 Mohammad Motamed

We consider the problem of efficiently performing simulation and inference for stochastic kinetic models. Whilst it is possible to work directly with the resulting Markov jump process, computational cost can be prohibitive for networks of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-06-18 Chris Sherlock , Andrew Golightly , Colin Gillespie

Bayesian inference typically relies on a large number of model evaluations to estimate posterior distributions. Established methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) can become computationally…

We propose a nonparametric bootstrap procedure for two-phase stratified sampling without replacement. In this design, a weighted likelihood estimator is known to have smaller asymptotic variance than under the convenient assumption of…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-09-26 Takumi Saegusa

Obtaining high certainty in predictive models is crucial for making informed and trustworthy decisions in many scientific and engineering domains. However, extensive experimentation required for model accuracy can be both costly and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-17 Giorgio Morales , John Sheppard

In many applications involving large dataset or online updating, stochastic gradient descent (SGD) provides a scalable way to compute parameter estimates and has gained increasing popularity due to its numerical convenience and memory…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-07-04 Yixin Fang , Jinfeng Xu , Lei Yang

The scalability of Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) for large-scale, high-dimensional data often forces a trade-off between computational feasibility and statistical accuracy, particularly for inference on pre-specified parameters. While…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-09 Bo Fu , Dandan Jiang