相关论文: Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains

We develop a central limit theorem (CLT) for a non-parametric estimator of the transition matrices in controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with finite state-action spaces. Our results establish precise conditions on the logging policy under…

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims at learning policies from previously collected static trajectory data without interacting with the real environment. Recent works provide a novel perspective by viewing offline RL as a generic…

We consider probabilistic model checking for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) induced from Stochastic Reaction Networks (SRNs) against a fragment of Continuous Stochastic Logic (CSL) extended with reward operators. Classical numerical…

In pre-clinical and medical quality control, it is of interest to assess the stability of the process under monitoring or to validate a current observation using historical control data. Classically, this is done by the application of…

The recent emergence of reinforcement learning has created a demand for robust statistical inference methods for the parameter estimates computed using these algorithms. Existing methods for statistical inference in online learning are…

We study model-based reinforcement learning (RL) for episodic Markov decision processes (MDP) whose transition probability is parametrized by an unknown transition core with features of state and action. Despite much recent progress in…

We develop and implement a novel fast bootstrap for dependent data. Our scheme is based on the i.i.d. resampling of the smoothed moment indicators. We characterize the class of parametric and semi-parametric estimation problems for which…

Inference for functional linear models in the presence of heteroscedastic errors has received insufficient attention given its practical importance; in fact, even a central limit theorem has not been studied in this case. At issue,…

Recent advance in deep offline reinforcement learning (RL) has made it possible to train strong robotic agents from offline datasets. However, depending on the quality of the trained agents and the application being considered, it is often…

Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) have been used extensively to model reliability of storage systems. While the exponentially distributed sojourn time of Markov models is widely known to be unrealistic (and it is necessary to consider…

Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are popular modeling formalism that constitutes the underlying semantics for real-time probabilistic systems such as queuing networks, stochastic process algebras, and calculi for systems biology. Prism…

Offline (or batch) reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms seek to learn an optimal policy from a fixed dataset without active data collection. Based on the composition of the offline dataset, two main categories of methods are used:…

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning enables large language models (LLMs) to break down complex problems into interpretable intermediate steps, significantly enhancing model transparency and performance in reasoning tasks. However, conventional…

This paper addresses the open problem of conducting change-point analysis for interval-valued time series data using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework. Motivated by financial time series, we analyze data that includes daily…

Sample-efficient offline reinforcement learning (RL) with linear function approximation has recently been studied extensively. Much of prior work has yielded the minimax-optimal bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\frac{1}{\sqrt{K}})$, with $K$…

We introduce methodology for real-time inference in general-state-space hidden Markov models. Specifically, we extend recent advances in controlled sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC) methods-originally proposed for offline smoothing-to the…

The recurrent neural network with the long short-term memory cell (LSTM-NN) is employed to simulate the long-time dynamics of open quantum system. The bootstrap method is applied in the LSTM-NN construction and prediction, which provides a…

Bootstrapping and rollout are two fundamental principles for value function estimation in reinforcement learning (RL). We introduce a novel class of Bellman operators, called subgraph Bellman operators, that interpolate between…

We investigate the performance of model based bootstrap methods for constructing point-wise confidence intervals around the survival function with interval censored data. We show that bootstrapping from the nonparametric maximum likelihood…

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly operate as sequential software systems, but their reliability is often summarized by scalar benchmark metrics. Metrics such as pass$@k$, pass$^k$, and the reliability decay curve (RDC) are…