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Global optimization heuristics are popular to optimize hard non-convex problems. Despite their irrefutably large cost-to-solution, in the lack of other working greedy or convex approaches, global optimization algorithms remain the…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-02-24 Kayo Gonçalves-e-Silva , Samuel Xavier-de-Souza

We propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems subject to joint-in-time chance constraints under unknown disturbance distributions. Unlike existing approaches that rely on parametric or Gaussian…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-04-21 Lukas Vogel , Andrea Carron , Eleftherios E. Vlahakis , Dimos V. Dimarogonas

Deep-learning (DL) weather prediction models offer some notable advantages over traditional physics-based models, including auto-differentiability and low computational cost, enabling detailed diagnostics of forecast errors. Using our…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-07-23 Uros Perkan , Ziga Zaplotnik , Gregor Skok

While machine learning-based weather prediction (MLWP) has achieved significant advancements, research on assimilating real observations or ensemble forecasts within MLWP models remains limited. We introduce ClimaX-LETKF, the first purely…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-17 Akira Takeshima , Kenta Shiraishi , Atsushi Okazaki , Tadashi Tsuyuki , Shunji Kotsuki

Rectified Flow (RF) models achieve state-of-the-art generation quality, yet controlling them for precise tasks -- such as semantic editing or blind image recovery -- remains a challenge. Current approaches bifurcate into inversion-based…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-09 Vansh Bansal , James G Scott

Time series forecasting plays a vital role across scientific, industrial, and environmental domains, especially when dealing with high-dimensional and nonlinear systems. While Transformer-based models have recently achieved state-of-the-art…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-05 Ali Forootani , Mohammad Khosravi , Masoud Barati

This study proposes a unified forecasting framework for high-dimensional multi-task time series to meet the prediction demands of cloud native backend systems operating under highly dynamic loads, coupled metrics, and parallel tasks. The…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-25 Zixiao Huang , Jixiao Yang , Sijia Li , Chi Zhang , Jinyu Chen , Chengda Xu

Conformal prediction constructs prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees, but its calibration stage is structurally constrained to a scalar score function and a single threshold variable - forcing shapes of prediction sets to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-13 Laura Lützow , Simone Garatti , Marco C. Campi , Lars Lindemann , Matthias Althoff

Long-horizon spatiotemporal prediction remains a challenging problem due to cumulative errors, noise amplification, and the lack of physical consistency in existing models. While diffusion models provide a probabilistic framework for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-13 Min Young Baeg , Yoon-Yeong Kim

While modern multivariate forecasters such as Transformers and GNNs achieve strong benchmark performance, they often suffer from systematic errors at specific variables or horizons and, critically, lack guarantees against performance…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-05 Jianxiang Xie , Yuncheng Hua , Mingyue Cheng , Flora Salim , Hao Xue

This paper presents a unified framework for understanding the methodology and theory behind several different methods in the conformal prediction literature, which includes standard conformal prediction (CP), weighted conformal prediction…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-12-23 Rina Foygel Barber , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Machine learning-based weather forecasting models now surpass state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction systems, but training and operating these models at high spatial resolution remains computationally expensive. We present a modular…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-02 Aymeric Delefosse , Anastase Charantonis , Dominique Béréziat

To tackle the global climate challenge, it urgently needs to develop a collaborative platform for comprehensive weather forecasting on large-scale meteorological data. Despite urgency, heterogeneous meteorological sensors across countries…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-30 Shengchao Chen , Guodong Long , Tao Shen , Jing Jiang

We showcase a hybrid modeling framework which embeds machine learning (ML) inference into the GFDL SPEAR climate model, for online sea ice bias correction during a set of global fully-coupled 1-year retrospective forecasts. We compare two…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-01-05 William Gregory , Mitchell Bushuk , Yong-Fei Zhang , Alistair Adcroft , Laure Zanna , Colleen McHugh , Liwei Jia

Neural networks have emerged as powerful surrogates for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), offering significant computational speedups over traditional methods. However, these models suffer from a critical limitation: error…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-29 Xinquan Huang , Paris Perdikaris

Leveraging machine learning (ML) to predict an initial solution for mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) has gained considerable popularity in recent years. These methods predict a solution and fix a subset of variables to reduce the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-04 Haoyang Liu , Jie Wang , Zijie Geng , Xijun Li , Yuxuan Zong , Fangzhou Zhu , Jianye Hao , Feng Wu

Deep learning methods have been exerting their strengths in long-term time series forecasting. However, they often struggle to strike a balance between expressive power and computational efficiency. Resorting to multi-layer perceptrons…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-21 Nannan Bian , Minhong Zhu , Li Chen , Weiran Cai

This study introduces ReSA-ConvLSTM, an artificial intelligence (AI) framework for systematic bias correction in numerical weather prediction (NWP). We propose three innovations by integrating dynamic climatological normalization, ConvLSTM…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-23 Xiao Zhou , Yuze Sun , Jie Wu , Xiaomeng Huang

When simulating partial differential equations, hybrid solvers combine coarse numerical solvers with learned correctors. They promise accelerated simulations while adhering to physical constraints. However, as shown in our theoretical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-19 Hao Wei , Aleksandra Franz , Bjoern List , Nils Thuerey

We propose a hybrid meta-learning framework for forecasting and anomaly detection in nonlinear dynamical systems characterized by nonstationary and stochastic behavior. The approach integrates a physics-inspired simulator that captures…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-18 Abdullah Burkan Bereketoglu