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We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. In particular, to improve the prediction properties of…

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the…

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

Scientific experiments are usually expensive due to complex experimental preparation and processing. Experimental design is therefore involved with the task of finding the optimal experimental input that results in the desirable output by…

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Bayesian optimization (BO) iteratively fits a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate to accumulated evaluations and selects new queries via an acquisition function such as expected improvement (EI). In practice, BO often concentrates evaluations…

It is well known that the Lasso can be interpreted as a Bayesian posterior mode estimate with a Laplacian prior. Obtaining samples from the full posterior distribution, the Bayesian Lasso, confers major advantages in performance as compared…

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

Bayesian inference provides a natural way of incorporating prior beliefs and assigning a probability measure to the space of hypotheses. Current solutions rely on iterative routines like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and…

We review an established Bayesian sampling method called sampling/importance resampling and highlight situations in nuclear theory when it can be particularly useful. To this end we both analyse a toy problem and demonstrate realistic…

Posterior tempering reduces the influence of the likelihood in the calculation of the posterior by raising the likelihood to a fractional power $\alpha$. The resulting power posterior - also known as an $\alpha$-posterior or fractional…

While Bayesian methods are extremely popular in statistics and machine learning, their application to massive datasets is often challenging, when possible at all. Indeed, the classical MCMC algorithms are prohibitively slow when both the…

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point…

A key task in Bayesian machine learning is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). One prevalent example of this is sampling posteriors in parametric distributions,…

The predictive Bayesian view involves eliciting a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions in lieu of specifying a likelihood function and prior distribution. Recent methods have leveraged predictive distributions which are…

Recent years have seen a rise in the application of machine learning techniques to aid the simulation of hard-to-sample systems that cannot be studied using traditional methods. Despite the introduction of many different architectures and…

We consider the problem of estimation in Hidden Markov models with finite state space and nonparametric emission distributions. Efficient estimators for the transition matrix are exhibited, and a semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises result is…

In solving Bayesian inverse problems, it is often desirable to use a common density parameterization to denote the prior and posterior. Typically we seek a density from the same family as the prior which closely approximates the true…

In Bayesian applications, there is a huge interest in rapid and accurate estimation of the posterior distribution, particularly for high dimensional or hierarchical models. In this article, we propose to use optimization to solve for a…

New sampling algorithms based on simulating continuous-time stochastic processes called piece-wise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) have shown considerable promise. However, these methods can struggle to sample from multi-modal or…