相关论文: Who Saw It Coming? Historical Experience and the 2…

This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…

Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…

With present and future observations becoming of higher and higher quality, it is timely and necessary to investigate the most significant theoretical uncertainties in the predictions of inflation. We show that our ignorance of the entire…

We compare forecasts of United States inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to predictions made by simple statistical techniques. In nowcasting, economic expertise is persuasive. When projecting beyond the current…

The relationship between inflation and predictors such as unemployment is potentially nonlinear with a strength that varies over time, and prediction errors error may be subject to large, asymmetric shocks. Inspired by these concerns, we…

The empirical literature provides mixed results on the relationship between inflation and unemployment, therefore, there is no consensus on validity and stability of the Phillips Curve. It also seems to be closely related with…

Using the latest observational data, we constrain the inflationary dynamics and the subsequent reheating epoch. Predictions for both phases can be significantly improved by employing numerically computed results compared to the slow-roll…

Forecasting inflation in small open economies is difficult because limited time series and strong external exposures create an imbalance between few observations and many potential predictors. We study this challenge using Thailand as a…

At the outbreak of the recent inflation surge, the public's attention to inflation was low but increased quickly once inflation started to rise. In this paper, I quantify when and by how much the public's attention to inflation changes, and…

This paper surveys the empirical literature of inflation targeting. The main findings from our review are the following: there is robust empirical evidence that larger and more developed countries are more likely to adopt the IT regime; the…

I discuss the current status of inflationary cosmology in light of the recent WMAP 3-year data release. The basic predictions of inflation are all supported by the data. Inflation also makes predictions which have not been well tested by…

This paper investigates the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically GPT-3.5-turbo (GPT), to form inflation perceptions and expectations based on macroeconomic price signals. We compare the LLM's output to household survey data…

Inflation is a major determinant for allocation decisions and its forecast is a fundamental aim of governments and central banks. However, forecasting inflation is not a trivial task, as its prediction relies on low frequency, highly…

Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized…

This paper examines the effectiveness of several forecasting methods for predicting inflation, focusing on aggregating disaggregated forecasts - also known in the literature as the bottom-up approach. Taking the Brazilian case as an…

This paper demonstrates how reinforcement learning can explain two puzzling empirical patterns in household consumption behavior during economic downturns. I develop a model where agents use Q-learning with neural network approximation to…

Monthly disaggregated US data from 1978 to 2016 reveals that exposure to news on inflation and monetary policy helps to explain inflation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, perceptions…

Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…

We propose a test to detect a forecast accuracy breakdown in a long memory time series and provide theoretical and simulation evidence on the memory transfer from the time series to the forecast residuals. The proposed method uses a double…

There has been much recent discussion, and some confusion, regarding the use of existing observational data to estimate the likelihood that next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiments might detect a nonzero…