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The need to evaluate treatment effectiveness is ubiquitous in most of empirical science, and interest in flexibly investigating effect heterogeneity is growing rapidly. To do so, a multitude of model-agnostic, nonparametric meta-learners…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-02-26 Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

Conditional effects are commonly used measures for understanding how treatment effects vary across different groups, and are often used to target treatments/interventions to groups who benefit most. In this work we review existing methods…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Jiacheng Ge , Iván Díaz

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is widely used in personalized medicine to inform therapeutic decisions. However, state-of-the-art methods for CATE estimation (so-called meta-learners) often perform poorly in the presence of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-12 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) for survival outcomes has gained increasing attention, as it captures the variation in treatment efficacy across patients or subgroups in delaying disease progression. However, most existing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-27 Na Bo , Ying Ding

Machine learning methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) facilitate large-scale personalized decision-making across various domains such as healthcare, policy making, education, and more. Current machine learning…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-25 Disha Makhija , Joydeep Ghosh , Yejin Kim

End-to-end representation learning has become a powerful tool for estimating causal quantities from high-dimensional observational data, but its efficiency remained unclear. Here, we face a central tension: End-to-end representation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-28 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Stefan Feuerriegel

The optimal dynamic treatment rule (ODTR) framework offers an approach for understanding which kinds of patients respond best to specific treatments -- in other words, treatment effect heterogeneity. Recently, there has been a proliferation…

Quantifying the heterogeneity of treatment effect is important for understanding how a commercial product or medical treatment affects different population subgroups. While much of treatment effect heterogeneity analysis focuses on the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Haodong Li , Alan E Hubbard , Oliver J Hines , Andrea M Storås , Kajsa Kvist , Mark van der Laan

Recently, from the personalized medicine perspective, there has been an increased demand to identify subgroups of subjects for whom treatment is effective. Consequently, the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) has been…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-02 Ryoma Hieda , Shintaro Yuki , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa

We consider the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects with arbitrary machine learning methods in the presence of unobserved confounders with the aid of a valid instrument. Such settings arise in A/B tests with an intent-to-treat…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-06-07 Vasilis Syrgkanis , Victor Lei , Miruna Oprescu , Maggie Hei , Keith Battocchi , Greg Lewis

Predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making is central for optimizing therapeutic decisions in personalized medicine (e.g., which dosing sequence to give to a cancer patient). However, predicting potential…

Inferring the causal effects of time-varying treatments is often hindered by highly variable inverse propensity weights, particularly in settings with limited covariate overlap. Building on the key framework of Imai and Ratkovic (2015), we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-06 Yige Li , María de los Angeles Resa , José R. Zubizarreta

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

We introduce the Meta Highly-Adaptive-Lasso Minimum Loss Estimator (M-HAL-MLE), a novel ensemble approach for estimating functional parameters of realistically modeled data distribution from independent and identically distributed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-28 Zeyi Wang , Wenxin Zhang , Brian S Caffo , Martin Lindquist , Mark van der Laan

Inferring unbiased treatment effects has received widespread attention in the machine learning community. In recent years, our community has proposed numerous solutions in standard settings, high-dimensional treatment settings, and even…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-19 Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Samuel Holt , Jeroen Berrevoets , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

We investigate the problem of machine learning-based (ML) predictive inference on individual treatment effects (ITEs). Previous work has focused primarily on developing ML-based meta-learners that can provide point estimates of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-30 Ahmed Alaa , Zaid Ahmad , Mark van der Laan

Estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data is challenging due to selection bias. Existing works mainly tackle this challenge in two ways. Some researchers propose constructing a score function that satisfies the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-09-07 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Shumin Ma , Qi Wu , Dongdong Wang , Zhixiang Huang

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

This study explores the learning dynamics of neural networks by analyzing the singular value decomposition (SVD) of their weights throughout training. Our investigation reveals that an orthogonal basis within each multidimensional weight's…

Analyzing data from multiple sources offers valuable opportunities to improve the estimation efficiency of causal estimands. However, this analysis also poses many challenges due to population heterogeneity and data privacy constraints.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-23 Rong Zhao , Jason Falvey , Xu Shi , Vernon M. Chinchilli , Chixiang Chen