相关论文: The Inflation of Resetting Workers

This article presents evidence based on a panel of 35 countries over the past 30 years that the Phillips curve relation holds for food inflation. That is, broader economic overheating does push up the food component of the CPI in a…

Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…

The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of…

Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the US over the past few decades. To identify changes in the returns to unobserved skills, we make a novel assumption about the dynamics…

This paper investigates how institutional rigidities shape inflation persistence in transition economies, focusing on labor market institutions and exchange rate regimes. Using a large panel of transition countries over the period…

We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real…

The conventional linear Phillips curve model, while widely used in policymaking, often struggles to deliver accurate forecasts in the presence of structural breaks and inherent nonlinearities. This paper addresses these limitations by…

I have analyzed the practicality of the Evans Rule in the state based forward guidance and possible ways to reform it. I examined the biases, measurement errors, and other limitations extant in the unemployment and the inflation rate in the…

We examine the theoretical foundations of standard methods for computing density perturbations in inflationary models. We find that: (1) the time-delay formalism (introduced by Guth and Pi, 1982) is only valid when inflation is…

Do labor market policies initiated in periods of loose monetary policy yield different outcomes from those introduced when monetary tightening prevails? Using data from 11 euro-area members up to 2010 -- and extending to 17 countries up to…

We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. 98 models motivated by economic theory are compared to a gradient boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks…

We study dynamic mechanism design in a pure-exchange economy with privately observed idiosyncratic income. In the standard infinitely lived hidden-income benchmark of Green (1987) and Thomas-Worrall (1990), constrained-efficient allocations…

Recent ACT data favor a higher scalar spectral index $n_s$, placing models such as $\alpha$-attractor T-models and natural Inflation in tension with current observations. We propose a K-inflation framework with a field-dependent…

This paper investigates the barriers to gender convergence using Japan as a salient environment to explore the interactive effects of labor market structures and social norms. I develop a quantitative model of household labor supply where…

We test the international applicability of Friedman s famous plucking theory of the business cycle in 12 advanced economies between 1970 and 2021. We find that in countries where labour markets are flexible (Australia, Canada, United…

We develop a theoretical framework to investigate the link between rising scale economies and stagnating productivity. Our model features heterogeneous firms, imperfect competition, and firm selection. We demonstrate that scale economies…

An appealing explanation for the Planck data is provided by inflationary models with a singular non-canonical kinetic term: a Laurent expansion of the kinetic function translates into a potential with a nearly shift-symmetric plateau in…

The COVID-19 pandemic reignited debate on the U.S. Phillips curve. Using MSA-level panel data (2001-2024), we employ a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) instrumental variable strategy with a shift-share instrument to estimate core non-tradable…

We provide novel systematic cross-country evidence that the link between domestic labour markets and CPI inflation has weakened considerably in advanced economies during recent decades. The central estimate is that the short-run…

In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…