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Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-05 Kwangho Kim , Jisu Kim , Edward H. Kennedy

Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-04 Steven G. Xu , Shu Yang , Brian J. Reich

Counterfactual distributions are important ingredients for policy analysis and decomposition analysis in empirical economics. In this article we develop modeling and inference tools for counterfactual distributions based on regression…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-11-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernandez-Val , Blaise Melly

Causal effects are often characterized with averages, which can give an incomplete picture of the underlying counterfactual distributions. Here we consider estimating the entire counterfactual density and generic functionals thereof. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-25 Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-07-16 Shenghao Wu , Wenbin Zhou , Minshuo Chen , Shixiang Zhu

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

A concentration index, a standardized covariance between a health variable and relative income ranks, is often used to quantify income-related health inequalities. There is a lack of formal approach to study the effect of an exposure, e.g.,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-14 Mohammad Ghasempour , Xavier de Luna , Per E. Gustafsson

We consider the problem of causal inference based on observational data (or the related missing data problem) with a binary or discrete treatment variable. In that context, we study inference for the counterfactual density functions and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-13 Daeyoung Ham , Ted Westling , Charles R. Doss

Audio-based depression detection models have demonstrated promising performance but often suffer from gender bias due to imbalanced training data. Epidemiological statistics show a higher prevalence of depression in females, leading models…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-04 Mingxuan Hu , Hongbo Ma , Xinlan Wu , Ziqi Liu , Jiaqi Liu , Yangbin Chen

Causal effects are usually studied in terms of the means of counterfactual distributions, which may be insufficient in many scenarios. Given a class of densities known up to normalizing constants, we propose to model counterfactual…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-20 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Edward H. Kennedy

When examining a contrast between two interventions, longitudinal causal inference studies frequently encounter positivity violations when one or both regimes are impossible to observe for some subjects. Existing weighting methods either…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-11 Alec McClean , Iván Díaz

In causal inference, an important problem is to quantify the effects of interventions or treatments. Many studies focus on estimating the mean causal effects; however, these estimands may offer limited insight since two distributions can…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-05 Archer Gong Zhang , Nancy Reid , Qiang Sun

The counterfactual distribution models the effect of the treatment in the untreated group. While most of the work focuses on the expected values of the treatment effect, one may be interested in the whole counterfactual distribution or…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-11-04 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Dino Sejdinovic

Counterfactual inference has become a ubiquitous tool in online advertisement, recommendation systems, medical diagnosis, and econometrics. Accurate modeling of outcome distributions associated with different interventions -- known as…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-07-13 Krikamol Muandet , Motonobu Kanagawa , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Sanparith Marukatat

We propose a generic Bayesian framework for inference in distributional regression models in which each parameter of a potentially complex response distribution and not only the mean is related to a structured additive predictor. The latter…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-09-18 Nadja Klein , Thomas Kneib , Stefan Lang , Alexander Sohn

Important questions for impact evaluation require knowledge not only of average effects, but of the distribution of treatment effects. The inability to observe individual counterfactuals makes answering these empirical questions…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-25 Bruno Fava

Estimating an individual's potential outcomes under counterfactual treatments is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, impulse…

This paper proposes a new framework to evaluate unconditional quantile effects (UQE) in a data combination model. The UQE measures the effect of a marginal counterfactual change in the unconditional distribution of a covariate on quantiles…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-05-21 Atsushi Inoue , Tong Li , Qi Xu

We introduce a new nonparametric causal decomposition approach that identifies the mechanisms by which a treatment variable contributes to a group-based outcome disparity. Our approach distinguishes three mechanisms: group differences in 1)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Ang Yu , Felix Elwert
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