相关论文: Physics-Based Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment: …

Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…

Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we…

The Constraint Satisfaction Problem (CSP) framework offers a simple and sound basis for representing and solving simple decision problems, without uncertainty. This paper is devoted to an extension of the CSP framework enabling us to deal…

Accurate earthquake location, which determines the origin time and location of seismic events using phase arrival times or waveforms, is fundamental to earthquake monitoring. While recent deep learning advances have significantly improved…

Dynamic response of loads has a significant effect on system stability and directly determines the stability margin of the operating point. Inherent uncertainty and natural variability of load models make the stability assessment especially…

Risk matrices are widely used across a range of fields and have found increasing utility in warning decision practices globally. However, their application in this context presents challenges, which range from potentially perverse warning…

Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system,…

This paper presents a novel numerical method for the hybrid reliability analysis by using the uncertainty theory. Aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty are considered simultaneously in this method. Epistemic uncertainty is…

If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…

As an integral part of assessing the seismic performance of structures, the probabilistic seismic demand-intensity relationship has been widely studied. In this study, the phenomenon of heteroscedasticity in probabilistic seismic demand…

We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of…

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…

Forecasting earthquake sequences remains a central challenge in seismology, particularly under non-stationary conditions. While deep learning models have shown promise, their ability to generalize across time remains poorly understood. We…

Ensuring the safety of autonomous vehicles, given the uncertainty in sensing other road users, is an open problem. Moreover, separate safety specifications for perception and planning components raise how to assess the overall system…

Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for robust and reliable predictions. However, existing spatiotemporal deep learning mostly focuses on deterministic prediction, overlooking the inherent uncertainty in such prediction. Particularly,…

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervals of about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), the applicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. A viable…

Recent advances in deep learning have led to its widespread adoption across diverse domains, including medical imaging. This progress is driven by increasingly sophisticated model architectures, such as ResNets, Vision Transformers, and…

Ensuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is essential, especially for facilities that rely on base isolation to reduce earthquake impacts. For understanding the seismic response, accurate models are key to predict the…

In this work, we report on a novel application of Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) to seismic data at scale. Based on the high waveform similarity between reoccurring earthquakes, our application identifies potential earthquakes by…