相关论文: Echo State Networks for Time Series Forecasting: H…

In this paper, we propose a novel data-driven approach for removing trends (detrending) from nonstationary, fractal and multifractal time series. We consider real-valued time series relative to measurements of an underlying dynamical system…

End-to-end (E2E) models have shown to outperform state-of-the-art conventional models for streaming speech recognition [1] across many dimensions, including quality (as measured by word error rate (WER)) and endpointer latency [2]. However,…

An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…

Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved…

To address the intermittency of renewable energy source (RES) generation, scenario forecasting offers a series of stochastic realizations for predictive objects with superior flexibility and direct views. Based on a long time-series…

Exponential smoothing is a time series forecasting method that presents the forecast based on trend and seasonality components. In this work, we study the behavior of two time series that describe the level of the water reservoirs of the…

By significant improvements in modern electrical systems, planning for unit commitment and power dispatching of them are two big concerns between the researchers. Short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in planning and…

Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series data remains a formidable challenge, particularly due to the growing complexity of temporal dependencies in real-world scenarios. While neural network-based models have achieved notable…

A hypergraph as a generalization of graphs records higher-order interactions among nodes, yields a more flexible network model, and allows non-linear features for a group of nodes. In this article, we propose a hypergraph echo state network…

The key component in forecasting demand and consumption of resources in a supply network is an accurate prediction of real-valued time series. Indeed, both service interruptions and resource waste can be reduced with the implementation of…

The electricity sector is undergoing substantial transformations due to the rising electrification of demand, enhanced integration of renewable energy resources, and the emergence of new technologies. These changes are rendering the…

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…

Echo state networks (ESNs) are a class of recurrent neural networks in which only the readout layer is trainable, while the recurrent and input layers are fixed. This architectural constraint enables computationally efficient processing of…

Echo state network (ESN) is viewed as a temporal non-orthogonal expansion with pseudo-random parameters. Such expansions naturally give rise to regressors of various relevance to a teacher output. We illustrate that often only a certain…

The prediction of the temporal dynamics of chaotic systems is challenging because infinitesimal perturbations grow exponentially. The analysis of the dynamics of infinitesimal perturbations is the subject of stability analysis. In stability…

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term…

In the field of complex dynamics, multistable attractors have been gaining a significant attention due to its unpredictability in occurrence and extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. Co-existing attractors are abundant in diverse…

This paper presents a time series forecasting framework which combines standard forecasting methods and a machine learning model. The inputs to the machine learning model are not lagged values or regular time series features, but instead…

Pattern similarity-based methods are widely used in classification and regression problems. Repeated, similar-shaped cycles observed in seasonal time series encourage to apply these methods for forecasting. In this paper we use the pattern…

In this paper, we present SSDNet, a novel deep learning approach for time series forecasting. SSDNet combines the Transformer architecture with state space models to provide probabilistic and interpretable forecasts, including trend and…