相关论文: Echo State Networks for Time Series Forecasting: H…

All numerical weather prediction models used for the wind industry need to produce their forecasts starting from the main synoptic hours 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC, once the analysis becomes available. The six-hour latency time between two…

Probabilistic weather forecasts from ensemble systems require statistical postprocessing to yield calibrated and sharp predictive distributions. This paper presents an area-covering postprocessing method for ensemble precipitation…

Echo State Networks (ESNs) are simplified recurrent neural network models composed of a reservoir and a linear, trainable readout layer. The reservoir is tunable by some hyper-parameters that control the network behaviour. ESNs are known to…

Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is a statistical tool for post-processing forecast ensembles of weather variables obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models in order to produce calibrated predictive…

Multivariate time-series forecasting, as a typical problem in the field of time series prediction, has a wide range of applications in weather forecasting, traffic flow prediction, and other scenarios. However, existing works do not…

As a result of the greater availability of big data, as well as the decreasing costs and increasing power of modern computing, the use of artificial neural networks for financial time series forecasting is once again a major topic of…

Forecasting time series with extreme events has been a challenging and prevalent research topic, especially when the time series data are affected by complicated uncertain factors, such as is the case in hydrologic prediction. Diverse…

Data augmentation is a crucial technique for improving model generalization and robustness, particularly in deep learning models where training data is limited. Although many augmentation methods have been developed for time series…

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have drawn interest from machine learning researchers because of their effectiveness at preserving past inputs for time-varying data processing tasks. To understand the success and limitations of RNNs, it is…

Deep learning (DL) in general and Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in particular have seen high success levels in sequence based applications. This paper pertains to RNNs for time series modelling and forecasting. We propose a novel RNN…

In this work, we propose an ensemble forecasting approach based on randomized neural networks. Improved randomized learning streamlines the fitting abilities of individual learners by generating network parameters in accordance with the…

Quantifying the impacts of anthropogenic global warming requires accurate Earth system model (ESM) simulations. Statistical bias correction and downscaling can be applied to reduce errors and increase the resolution of ESMs. However,…

This study examines the predictability of artificial intelligence (AI) models for weather prediction. Using a simple deep-learning architecture based on convolutional long short-term memory and the ERA5 data for training, we show that…

We study the convergence of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for mixtures of linear regressions with an arbitrary number $k$ of components. We show that as long as signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is $\tilde{\Omega}(k)$,…

Many neural networks use the tanh activation function, however when given a probability distribution as input, the problem of computing the output distribution in neural networks with tanh activation has not yet been addressed. One…

We investigate how fully-passive electromagnetic skins (EMSs) can be engineered to enhance channel charting (CC) in dense urban environments. We employ two complementary state-of-the-art CC techniques, semi-supervised t-distributed…

Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operation. Yet, it remains largely a dataset-specific task, requiring comprehensive training data,…

Predicting sea surface temperature (SST) within the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region has been extensively studied due to its significant influence on global temperature and precipitation patterns. Statistical models such as…

Accurate forecasting of electric load and renewable generation is essential for reliable and cost effective power system operations. Recent advances in transformer based and foundation machine learning models, driven by large scale…

Time series forecasting has received a lot of attention, with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) being one of the widely used models due to their ability to handle sequential data. Previous studies on RNN time series forecasting, however,…