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The principal stratification has become a popular tool to address a broad class of causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with non-compliance and truncation-by-death problems. The causal effects within principal strata which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-20 Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Yangbo He

I develop a new identification strategy for treatment effects when noisy measurements of unobserved confounding factors are available. I use proxy variables to construct a random variable conditional on which treatment variables become…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-09-30 Kenichi Nagasawa

Unmeasured confounding presents a common challenge in observational studies, potentially making standard causal parameters unidentifiable without additional assumptions. Given the increasing availability of diverse data sources, exploiting…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-09-18 Shanshan Luo , Yechi Zhang , Wei Li

The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-09-21 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

This paper studies inference on treatment effects in panel data settings with unobserved confounding. We model outcome variables through a factor model with random factors and loadings. Such factors and loadings may act as unobserved…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-12-05 Guido W. Imbens , Davide Viviano

Long-term outcomes are often unavailable in randomized clinical trials, although short-term surrogate outcomes are commonly observed. External observational data may contain the long-term outcome, but causal comparisons based on such data…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-15 Ziyang Liu , Niwen Zhou , Peng Wu , Xu Guo

Evaluating treatment effects is critical in clinical trials but sometimes involves lengthy, invasive, or costly follow-up procedures. In these cases, surrogate markers, which provide intermediate measures of the long-term treatment effect,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-24 Sarah C. Lotspeich , P. D. Anh. Nguyen , Layla Parast

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding…

Methods that rely on proxies, without imposing strong parametric structure, are increasingly used to deal with unobserved variables in causal inference. One influential line of this work reconstructs latent distributions used to identify…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Helen Guo , Ilya Shpitser , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-17 Yong Wu , Mingzhou Liu , Jing Yan , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-19 Xuan Wang , Tianxi Cai , Lu Tian , Layla Parast

The presence of unobserved confounders is one of the main challenges in identifying treatment effects. In this paper, we propose a new approach to causal inference using panel data with large large $N$ and $T$. Our approach imputes the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-03-28 Ben Deaner , Chen-Wei Hsiang , Andrei Zeleneev

Surrogate endpoints are used in place of long-term outcomes in randomized experiments when observing the real outcome for a large enough cohort is prohibitively expensive or impractical. A short-term surrogate is good if the result of an…

Estimating treatment effects using observation data often relies on the assumption of no unmeasured confounders. However, unmeasured confounding variables may exist in many real-world problems. It can lead to a biased estimation without…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-19 Namhwa Lee , Shujie Ma

When evaluating the effectiveness of a treatment, policy, or intervention, the desired measure of effectiveness may be expensive to collect, not routinely available, or may take a long time to occur. In these cases, it is sometimes possible…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-10 Denis Agniel , Layla Parast , Boris Hejblum

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-30 Manuel Iglesias-Alonso , Felix Schur , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas Peters

We consider causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. We study the case where a proxy is available for the unobserved confounding in the form of a network connecting the units. For example, the link structure of a social…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-06-03 Victor Veitch , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Estimating the effects of long-term treatments through A/B testing is challenging. Treatments, such as updates to product functionalities, user interface designs, and recommendation algorithms, are intended to persist within the system for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-30 Shan Huang , Chen Wang , Yuan Yuan , Jinglong Zhao , Brocco , Zhang

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

A common concern when trying to draw causal inferences from observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding. In practice, many of the covariates may only be proxies of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-31 Oliver Dukes , Ilya Shpitser , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen