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Causal decomposition analysis (CDA) is an approach for modeling the impact of hypothetical interventions to reduce disparities. It is useful for identifying foci that future interventions, including multilevel and multimodal interventions,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-28 John W. Jackson , Ting-Hsuan Chang , Aster Meche , Trang Q. Nguyen

The study of human mobility patterns is a crucially important research field for its impact on several socio-economic aspects and, in particular, the measure of regularity patters of human mobility can provide a across-the-board view of…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2021-04-20 Fabio Vanni , David Lambert

The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2013-04-24 Anna Machens , Francesco Gesualdo , Caterina Rizzo , Alberto E Tozzi , Alain Barrat , Ciro Cattuto

Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-07-04 Evan L. Ray , Nicholas G. Reich

Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Caitlin Ward , Rob Deardon , Alexandra M. Schmidt

To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2025-09-03 Miguel A. Cajahuanca Ricaldi , Yaroslav Ispolatov

Driving simulators are increasingly used in research and development. However, simulators often cause motion sickness due to downscaled motion and unscaled veridical visuals. In this paper, a motion cueing algorithm is proposed that reduces…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-10-29 Varun Kotian , Riender Happee , Barys Shyrokau

The emergence of novel infectious agents presents challenges to statistical models of disease transmission. These challenges arise from limited, poor-quality data and an incomplete understanding of the agent. Moreover, outbreaks manifest…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-20 Jiasheng Shi , Jeffrey S. Morris , David M. Rubin , Jing Huang

Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2022-11-23 Alexander F. Siegenfeld , Pratyush K. Kollepara , Yaneer Bar-Yam

Intensive longitudinal data, characterized by frequent measurements across numerous time points, are increasingly common due to advances in wearable devices and mobile health technologies. We consider evaluating causal mediation pathways…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-26 Tianchen Qian

Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions have emerged as crucial interventions for mitigating the spread of the virus. In this study, we enhance the predictive capabilities of our model, Sequence-to-Sequence Epidemic Attention…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2023-11-14 Yukang Jiang , Ting Tian , Huajun Xie , Hailiang Guo , Xueqin Wang

Epidemic spreading often occurs in spatially heterogeneous environments, yet how quenched heterogeneity reshapes its onset and critical dynamics remains poorly understood. The diffusive epidemic process, a minimal reaction-diffusion model…

统计力学 · 物理学 2026-03-24 Valentin Anfray , Hong-Yan Shih

Over the last decades, many prognostic models based on artificial intelligence techniques have been used to provide detailed predictions in healthcare. Unfortunately, the real-world observational data used to train and validate these models…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-21 Alice Bernasconi , Alessio Zanga , Peter J. F. Lucas , Marco Scutari , Fabio Stella

One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…

Human behaviour strongly influences the spread of infectious diseases: understanding the interplay between epidemic dynamics and adaptive behaviours is essential to improve response strategies to epidemics, with the goal of containing the…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2024-08-21 Marco Mancastroppa , Alessandro Vezzani , Vittoria Colizza , Raffaella Burioni

Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-02 Gail E. Potter , Timo Smieszek , Kerstin Sailer

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-01 Heitor R. Medeiros , Hossein Sharifi-Noghabi , Gabriel L. Oliveira , Saghar Irandoust

Spatio-temporal prediction plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation, weather forecasting, and urban planning. While integrating multi-modal data has shown potential for enhancing prediction accuracy, key challenges persist: (i)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-29 Yuting Huang , Ziquan Fang , Zhihao Zeng , Lu Chen , Yunjun Gao

Time series forecasting requires balancing short-term and long-term dependencies for accurate predictions. Existing methods mainly focus on long-term dependency modeling, neglecting the complexities of short-term dynamics, which may hinder…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-29 Sijia Peng , Yun Xiong , Yangyong Zhu , Zhiqiang Shen

Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-08-16 Kirstin Roster , Colm Connaughton , Francisco A. Rodrigues