相关论文: Cluster-Based Bayesian SIRD Modeling of Chickenpox…

Stochastic modeling of disease dynamics has had a long tradition. Among the first epidemic models including a spatial structure in the form of local interactions is the contact process. In this article we investigate two extensions of the…

The prediction of spread patterns of COVID19 virus in India is very difficult due to its versatile demographic as well as meteorological data distribution. Various researchers across the globe have attempted to correlate the interdependency…

India is one of the worst affected countries by the Covid-19 pandemic at present. We studied publicly available data of the Covid-19 patients in India and analyzed possible impacts of quarantine and social distancing within the stochastic…

Visualizing data plays a pivotal role in portraying important scientific information. Hence, visualization techniques aid in displaying relevant graphical interpretations from the varied structures of data, which is found otherwise. In this…

When modelling HIV epidemics, it is important to incorporate set-point viral load and its heritability. As set-point viral load distributions can differ significantly amongst epidemics, it is imperative to account for the observed local…

This paper investigates a behavioral-feedback SIR model in which the infection rate adapts dynamically based on the fractions of susceptible and infected individuals. We introduce an invariant of motion and we characterize the peak of…

The COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who subsequently die. As COVID-19 disproportionately affects older individuals, age-specific IFR estimates are imperative to facilitate…

An ultrametric model of epidemic spread of infections based on the classical SIR model is proposed. Ultrametrics on a set of individuals based on theire hierarchical clustering relativly to the average time of infectious contact is…

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

Population heterogeneity is a key factor in epidemic dynamics, influencing both transmission and final epidemic size. While heterogeneity is often modelled through age structure, spatial location, or contact patterns, differences in host…

We extend the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to a network-based framework where the degree distribution of nodes follows a Poisson distribution. This extension incorporates an additional parameter representing the mean…

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition caused by a dysregulated host response to infection. Recently, researchers have hypothesized that sepsis consists of a heterogeneous spectrum of distinct subtypes, motivating several studies to…

Climate change is intensifying infectious and chronic diseases like malaria and diabetes, respectively, especially among the vulnerable populations. Global temperatures have risen by approximately $0.6^\circ$C since 1950, extending the…

Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…

We study a mosquito-borne epidemic model where the vector population is distinct in aquatic and adult stages and a saturating effect of disease transmission is assumed to ocurr when the number of infectious (humans and mosquitoes) becomes…

Time-varying network topologies can deeply influence dynamical processes mediated by them. Memory effects in the pattern of interactions among individuals are also known to affect how diffusive and spreading phenomena take place. In this…

The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…

Non-pharmaceutical measures such as preventive quarantines, remote working, school and workplace closures, lockdowns, etc. have shown effectivenness from an epidemic control perspective; however they have also significant negative…

Epidemic models currently play a central role in our attempts to understand and control infectious diseases. Here, we derive a model for the diffusion limit of stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) epidemic dynamics on a…

Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence reveals a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted…