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We introduce a novel framework to financial time series forecasting that leverages causality-inspired models to balance the trade-off between invariance to distributional changes and minimization of prediction errors. To the best of our…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2024-08-20 Daniel Cunha Oliveira , Yutong Lu , Xi Lin , Mihai Cucuringu , Andre Fujita

Reservoir computing, a machine learning framework used for modeling the brain, can predict temporal data with little observations and minimal computational resources. However, it is difficult to accurately reproduce the long-term target…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-24 Yuji Kawai , Takashi Morita , Jihoon Park , Minoru Asada

Matrix multiplication over the real field constitutes a foundational operation in the training of deep learning models, serving as a computational cornerstone for both forward and backward propagation processes. However, the presence of…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2025-08-07 Hao Shi , Zhengyi Jiang , Zhongyi Huang , Bo Bai , Gong Zhang , Hanxu Hou

This research introduces a multi-horizon contingency model predictive control (CMPC) framework in which classes of robust MPC (RMPC) algorithms are combined with classes of learning-based MPC (LB-MPC) algorithms to enable safe learning. We…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-05-30 Merlijne Geurts , Tren Baltussen , Alexander Katriniok , Maurice Heemels

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

Since distribution shifts are common in real-world applications, there is a pressing need to develop prediction models that are robust against such shifts. Existing frameworks, such as empirical risk minimization or distributionally robust…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-25 Xinwei Shen , Peter Bühlmann , Armeen Taeb

This paper presents a novel approach to handle the computational complexity in security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) with corrective network reconfiguration (CNR) to harness the flexibility in transmission networks. This is achieved…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-07-21 Arun Venkatesh Ramesh , Xingpeng Li , Kory W. Hedman

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has significantly enhanced large language models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks by incorporating external knowledge retrieval. However, existing RAG frameworks primarily rely on semantic similarity…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-04-18 Elahe Khatibi , Ziyu Wang , Amir M. Rahmani

Causal representation learning (CRL) models aim to transform high-dimensional data into a latent space, enabling interventions to generate counterfactual samples or modify existing data based on the causal relationships among latent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-19 Alireza Sadeghi , Wael AbdAlmageed

This paper presents an uncertainty compensation-based robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems with both matched and unmatched nonlinear uncertainties subject to both state and input constraints. In…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-09-27 Ran Tao , Pan Zhao , Ilya Kolmanovsky , Naira Hovakimyan

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) is widely used for controlling high-speed robotic systems such as quadrotors. However, its significant computational demands often hinder real-time feasibility and reliability, particularly in…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-09-30 Saber Omidi

End-to-end engineering design pipelines, in which designs are evaluated using concurrently defined optimal controllers, are becoming increasingly common in practice. To discover designs that perform well even under the misspecification of…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-10-10 Yash Patel , Sahana Rayan , Ambuj Tewari

Reservoir computing (RC) is a state-of-the-art machine learning method that makes use of the power of dynamical systems (the reservoir) for real-time inference. When using biological complex systems as reservoir substrates, it serves as a…

适应与自组织系统 · 物理学 2026-03-03 Mario U. Gaimann , Miriam Klopotek

This study presents incremental correction methods for refining neural network parameters or control functions entering into a continuous-time dynamic system to achieve improved solution accuracy in satisfying the interim point constraints…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-03-12 Namhoon Cho , Hyo-Sang Shin , Antonios Tsourdos , Davide Amato

We propose a stochastic model predictive control (MPC) framework for linear systems subject to joint-in-time chance constraints under unknown disturbance distributions. Unlike existing approaches that rely on parametric or Gaussian…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-04-21 Lukas Vogel , Andrea Carron , Eleftherios E. Vlahakis , Dimos V. Dimarogonas

The dynamic characteristics of multiphase industrial processes present significant challenges in the field of industrial big data modeling. Traditional soft sensing models frequently neglect the process dynamics and have difficulty in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-09 Yimeng He , Le Yao , Xinmin Zhang , Xiangyin Kong , Zhihuan Song

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made great strides in pushing the state-of-the-art in several challenging domains. Recent studies reveal that they are prone to making overconfident predictions. This greatly reduces the overall trust in…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-09-07 Vinith Kugathasan , Muhammad Haris Khan