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Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for reinforcement learning (RL) in high-stakes settings. We propose a unified conformal prediction framework for infinite-horizon policy evaluation that constructs distribution-free prediction…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-31 Feichen Gan , Youcun Lu , Yingying Zhang , Yukun Liu

In modern electronic manufacturing, defect detection on Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs) plays a critical role in ensuring product yield and maintaining the reliability of downstream assembly processes. However, existing methods often suffer…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-07-08 Jiangzhong Cao , Huanqi Wu , Xu Zhang , Lianghong Tan , Huan Zhang

Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful tool in robotics and control, thanks to its ability to calibrate complex, data-driven models with formal guarantees. However, in robot navigation tasks, existing CP-based methods often…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-04-02 Jaeuk Shin , Jungjin Lee , Insoon Yang

Graphical structures estimated by causal learning algorithms from time series data can provide misleading causal information if the causal timescale of the generating process fails to match the measurement timescale of the data. Existing…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-22 Mohammadsajad Abavisani , David Danks , Sergey Plis

As a key component to intuitive cognition and reasoning solutions in human intelligence, causal knowledge provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' interpretability towards decision-making by helping reduce the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-25 Ruichu Cai , Siyang Huang , Jie Qiao , Wei Chen , Yan Zeng , Keli Zhang , Fuchun Sun , Yang Yu , Zhifeng Hao

Selective conformal prediction can yield substantially tighter uncertainty sets when we can identify calibration examples that are exchangeable with the test example. In interventional settings, such as perturbation experiments in genomics,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-03 Amir Asiaee , Kavey Aryan , James P. Long

Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved remarkable success in a wide range of sequential decision-making problems. Recent diffusion-based policies further improve RL by modeling complex, high-dimensional action distributions. However,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-11 Xiaofeng Xiao , Xiao Hu , Yang Ye , Xubo Yue

Many multivariate time series anomaly detection frameworks have been proposed and widely applied. However, most of these frameworks do not consider intrinsic relationships between variables in multivariate time series data, thus ignoring…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-11 Falih Gozi Febrinanto , Kristen Moore , Chandra Thapa , Mujie Liu , Vidya Saikrishna , Jiangang Ma , Feng Xia

We propose a new conformal prediction method for time-series data with a guaranteed asymptotic conditional coverage rate, Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR), which is flexible enough to produce both prediction intervals and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-09 M. Sampson , K. S. Chan

The recent advancement in vehicular networking technology provides novel solutions for designing intelligent and sustainable vehicle motion controllers. This work addresses a car-following task, where the feedback linearisation method is…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-10-28 Sheng Yu , Xiao Pan , Anastasis Georgiou , Boli Chen , Imad M. Jaimoukha , Simos A. Evangelou

Cross-domain recommendation forms a crucial component in recommendation systems. It leverages auxiliary information through source domain tasks or features to enhance target domain recommendations. However, incorporating inconsistent source…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2025-10-17 Zhibo Wu , Yunfan Wu , Lin Jiang , Ping Yang , Yao Hu

Convolutional neural networks (CNN) have led to many state-of-the-art results spanning through various fields. However, a clear and profound theoretical understanding of the forward pass, the core algorithm of CNN, is still lacking. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-02-02 Vardan Papyan , Yaniv Romano , Michael Elad

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-10 Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Maximilian Muschalik , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

We propose \textbf{Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP)}, a distribution-free framework for constructing well-calibrated prediction intervals in nonstationary time series. TCP couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-26 Agnideep Aich , Ashit Baran Aich , Dipak C. Jain

Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-02 Sophia Sun , Rose Yu

We develop a three-component Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm to achieve output-reference tracking with prescribed performance for continuous-time nonlinear systems. One component is so-called funnel MPC, which achieves reference…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-02-18 Lukas Lanza , Dario Dennstädt , Thomas Berger , Karl Worthmann

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-03 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Linear residualization is a common practice for confounding adjustment in machine learning (ML) applications. Recently, causality-aware predictive modeling has been proposed as an alternative causality-inspired approach for adjusting for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-11-10 Elias Chaibub Neto

A multirate nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) strategy is proposed for systems with dynamics and control inputs evolving on different timescales. The proposed multirate formulation of the system model and receding horizon optimal…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2022-07-05 Yana Lishkova , Mark Cannon , Sina Ober-Blöbaum