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We introduce Look-Ahead-Bench, a standardized benchmark measuring look-ahead bias in Point-in-Time (PiT) Large Language Models (LLMs) within realistic and practical financial workflows. Unlike most existing approaches that primarily test…

Backtesting large language models (LLMs) on historical financial data is unreliable because pre-training cuts off after the events happened. An LLM trained in 2024 already "knows" which way 2018-2020 stocks moved. We name this failure…

Considering the difficulty of financial time series forecasting in financial aid, much of the current research focuses on leveraging big data analytics in financial services. One modern approach is to utilize "predictive analysis",…

Large language models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable reasoning and planning capabilities. Most prior work in this area has used LLMs to reason through steps from an initial to a goal state or criterion, thereby effectively reasoning in a…

We develop a statistical test to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using state-of-the-art pre-training data detection techniques, we estimate the likelihood that a given prompt appeared…

As Large Language Models (LLMs) have made significant advancements across various tasks, such as question answering, translation, text summarization, and dialogue systems, the need for accuracy in information becomes crucial, especially for…

Fine-tuning enables large language models (LLMs) to adapt to specific domains, but often compromises their previously established safety alignment. To mitigate the degradation of model safety during fine-tuning, we introduce LookAhead…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into financial workflows, but evaluation practice has not kept up. Finance-specific biases can inflate performance, contaminate backtests, and make reported results useless for any…

Large Language Models (LLMs) push the bound-aries in natural language processing and generative AI, driving progress across various aspects of modern society. Unfortunately, the pervasive issue of bias in LLMs responses (i.e., predictions)…

Large language models (LLMs) are a type of machine learning tool that economists have started to apply in their empirical research. One such application is macroeconomic forecasting with backtesting of LLMs, even though they are trained on…

Humans are accustomed to reading and writing in a forward manner, and this natural bias extends to text understanding in auto-regressive large language models (LLMs). This paper investigates whether LLMs, like humans, struggle with reverse…

Large language models (LLMs), including ChatGPT, can extract profitable trading signals from the sentiment in news text. However, backtesting such strategies poses a challenge because LLMs are trained on many years of data, and backtesting…

Financial institutions increasingly rely on large language models (LLMs) for high-stakes decision-making. However, these models risk perpetuating harmful biases if deployed without careful oversight. This paper investigates racial bias in…

Model selection is a critical step in time series forecasting, traditionally requiring extensive performance evaluations across various datasets. Meta-learning approaches aim to automate this process, but they typically depend on…

Large Language Models have received significant attention due to their abilities to solve a wide range of complex tasks. However these models memorize a significant proportion of their training data, posing a serious threat when disclosed…

Large Language Models (LLMs) inherit explicit and implicit biases from their training datasets. Identifying and mitigating biases in LLMs is crucial to ensure fair outputs, as they can perpetuate harmful stereotypes and misinformation. This…

Large language models (LLMs) can exhibit advanced reasoning yet still generate incorrect answers. We hypothesize that such errors frequently stem from spurious beliefs, propositions the model internally considers true but are incorrect. To…

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit cognitive biases -- systematic tendencies of irrational decision-making, similar to those seen in humans. Prior work has found that these biases vary across models and can be amplified by instruction…

Emerging techniques in computer science make it possible to "brain scan" large language models (LLMs), identify the plain-English concepts that guide their reasoning, and steer them while holding other factors constant. We show that this…

With the introduction of (large) language models, there has been significant concern about the unintended bias such models may inherit from their training data. A number of studies have shown that such models propagate gender stereotypes,…