相关论文: Gaussian approximations for fast Bayesian inferenc…

Approximate Bayesian inference methods that scale to very large datasets are crucial in leveraging probabilistic models for real-world time series. Sparse Markovian Gaussian processes combine the use of inducing variables with efficient…

In this paper, we study efficient approximate sampling for probability distributions known up to normalization constants. We specifically focus on a problem class arising in Bayesian inference for large-scale inverse problems in science and…

We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve…

The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…

Epidemiological forecasts are beset by uncertainties about the underlying epidemiological processes, and the surveillance process through which data are acquired. We present a Bayesian inference methodology that quantifies these…

We consider Bayesian inference for large scale inverse problems, where computational challenges arise from the need for repeated evaluations of an expensive forward model. This renders most Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches infeasible,…

Despite the recent development of methods dealing with partially observed epidemic dynamics (unobserved model coordinates, discrete and noisy outbreak data), limitations remain in practice, mainly related to the quantity of augmented data…

Doubly intractable distributions arise in many settings, for example in Markov models for point processes and exponential random graph models for networks. Bayesian inference for these models is challenging because they involve intractable…

This paper focuses on the estimation of partially observed branching processes. First, the estimators from a frequentist perspective proposed in the literature are reviewed. The main objective of this paper is to present computational tools…

Bayesian computational algorithms tend to scale poorly as data size increases. This has motivated divide-and-conquer-based approaches for scalable inference. These divide the data into subsets, perform inference for each subset in parallel,…

The computational cost for inference and prediction of statistical models based on Gaussian processes with Mat\'ern covariance functions scales cubicly with the number of observations, limiting their applicability to large data sets. The…

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

We present a scalable and robust Bayesian inference method for linear state space models. The method is applied to demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target…

We tackle limitations of ordinary differential equation-driven Susceptible-Infections-Removed (SIR) models and their extensions that have recently be employed for epidemic nowcasting and forecasting. In particular, we deal with challenges…

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

We analyze the dynamics of an algorithm for approximate inference with large Gaussian latent variable models in a student-teacher scenario. To model nontrivial dependencies between the latent variables, we assume random covariance matrices…

This article presents an approach to Bayesian semiparametric inference for Gaussian multivariate response regression. We are motivated by various small and medium dimensional problems from the physical and social sciences. The statistical…

This paper investigates the approximation of Gaussian random variables in Banach spaces, focusing on the high-probability bounds for the approximation of Gaussian random variables using finitely many observations. We derive non-asymptotic…

We analyze the Gaussian approximation as a method to obtain the first and second moments of a stochastic process described by a master equation. We justify the use of this approximation with ideas coming from van Kampen's expansion approach…

Estimating the statistics of the state of a dynamical system, from partial and noisy observations, is both mathematically challenging and finds wide application. Furthermore, the applications are of great societal importance, including…