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Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-16 Wei Fan , Shun Zheng , Xiaohan Yi , Wei Cao , Yanjie Fu , Jiang Bian , Tie-Yan Liu

Many important stochastic counting models can be written as general birth-death processes (BDPs). BDPs are continuous-time Markov chains on the non-negative integers and can be used to easily parameterize a rich variety of probability…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-07-28 Forrest W. Crawford , Marc A. Suchard

Learning causal structure among event types on multi-type event sequences is an important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the Multivariate Hawkes processes, mostly assumed that each sequence is independent and identically…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-17 Ruichu Cai , Siyu Wu , Jie Qiao , Zhifeng Hao , Keli Zhang , Xi Zhang

Spatiotemporal dynamics models are fundamental for various domains, from heat propagation in materials to oceanic and atmospheric flows. However, currently available neural network-based spatiotemporal modeling approaches fall short when…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-11 Valerii Iakovlev , Harri Lähdesmäki

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem and introduce a novel point-process-based prediction algorithm. Spatio-temporal prediction is extensively studied in Machine Learning literature due to its critical real-life applications such…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-03-17 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman S. Kozat

The moments of random variables are fundamental statistical measures for characterizing the shape of a probability distribution, encompassing metrics such as mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Additionally, the product moments,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-09 Yuta Kawakami , Jin Tian

We study the use of Temporal-Difference learning for estimating the structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice models. Our algorithms are based on the conditional choice probability approach but use functional approximations to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-12-23 Karun Adusumilli , Dita Eckardt

Predicting irregularly spaced event sequences with discrete marks poses significant challenges due to the complex, asynchronous dependencies embedded within continuous-time data streams.Existing sequential approaches capture dependencies…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-13 Yuxiang Liu , Qiao Liu , Tong Luo , Yanglei Gan , Peng He , Yao LIu

Predicting when and where events will occur in cities, like taxi pick-ups, crimes, and vehicle collisions, is a challenging and important problem with many applications in fields such as urban planning, transportation optimization and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-06-24 Maya Okawa , Tomoharu Iwata , Takeshi Kurashima , Yusuke Tanaka , Hiroyuki Toda , Naonori Ueda

In food science, it is of great interest to get information about the temporal perception of aliments to create new products, to modify existing ones or more generally to understand the perception mechanisms. Temporal Dominance of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-02-13 Hervé Cardot , Guillaume Lecuelle , Pascal Schlich , Michel Visalli

Retrieving temporal event sequences from textual descriptions is crucial for applications such as analyzing e-commerce behavior, monitoring social media activities, and tracking criminal incidents. To advance this task, we introduce…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-02-04 Zefang Liu , Yinzhu Quan

The concept of data depth leads to a center-outward ordering of multivariate data, and it has been effectively used for developing various data analytic tools. While different notions of depth were originally developed for finite…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-02-13 Anirvan Chakraborty , Probal Chaudhuri

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide an elegant mathematical framework for modeling complex decision and planning problems in stochastic domains in which states of the system are observable only indirectly, via a…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2011-06-02 M. Hauskrecht

The main focus of this work is on providing a formal definition of statistical depth for functional data on the basis of six properties, recognising topological features such as continuity, smoothness and contiguity. Amongst our depth…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-10-15 Alicia Nieto-Reyes , Heather Battey

A temporal point process is a mathematical model for a time series of discrete events, which covers various applications. Recently, recurrent neural network (RNN) based models have been developed for point processes and have been found…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-01-13 Takahiro Omi , Naonori Ueda , Kazuyuki Aihara

Learning continuous-time point processes is essential to many discrete event forecasting tasks. However, integration poses a major challenge, particularly for spatiotemporal point processes (STPPs), as it involves calculating the likelihood…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-02 Zihao Zhou , Rose Yu

Self-exciting spatio-temporal point process models predict the rate of events as a function of space, time, and the previous history of events. These models naturally capture triggering and clustering behavior, and have been widely used in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-08-14 Alex Reinhart

Semi-Markov processes play an important role in the effective description of partially accessible systems in stochastic thermodynamics. They occur, for instance, in coarse-graining procedures such as state lumping and when analyzing waiting…

统计力学 · 物理学 2026-01-19 Alexander M. Maier , Jonas H. Fritz , Udo Seifert

We introduce Functional Diffusion Processes (FDPs), which generalize score-based diffusion models to infinite-dimensional function spaces. FDPs require a new mathematical framework to describe the forward and backward dynamics, and several…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-19 Giulio Franzese , Giulio Corallo , Simone Rossi , Markus Heinonen , Maurizio Filippone , Pietro Michiardi

Asynchronous time series, also known as temporal event sequences, are the basis of many applications throughout different industries. Temporal point processes(TPPs) are the standard method for modeling such data. Existing TPP models have…