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Uncertainty in probabilistic classifiers predictions is a key concern when models are used to support human decision making, in broader probabilistic pipelines or when sensitive automatic decisions have to be taken. Studies have shown that…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-09-09 Nicolas Posocco , Antoine Bonnefoy

In this paper, we develop a simulation-based framework for regularized logistic regression, exploiting two novel results for scale mixtures of normals. By carefully choosing a hierarchical model for the likelihood by one type of mixture,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-17 Robert B. Gramacy , Nicholas G. Polson

Many inverse problems in signal processing deal with the robust estimation of unknown data from underdetermined linear observations. Low dimensional models, when combined with appropriate regularizers, have been shown to be efficient at…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2016-12-07 Yann Traonmilin , Rémi Gribonval

Probabilistic models must be well calibrated to support reliable decision-making. While calibration in single-output regression is well studied, defining and achieving multivariate calibration in multi-output regression remains considerably…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-28 Naomi Desobry , Elnura Zhalieva , Souhaib Ben Taieb

Given a collection of feature maps indexed by a set $\mathcal{T}$, we study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) on regression problems with square loss over the union of the linear classes induced by these feature maps.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-11-20 Ayoub El Hanchi , Chris J. Maddison , Murat A. Erdogdu

Conformal risk control (CRC) provides distribution-free guarantees for controlling the expected loss at a user-specified level. Existing theory typically assumes that the loss decreases monotonically with a tuning parameter that governs the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-21 Tareq Aldirawi , Yun Li , Wenge Guo

Regularized kernel methods such as, e.g., support vector machines and least-squares support vector regression constitute an important class of standard learning algorithms in machine learning. Theoretical investigations concerning…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-03-21 Robert Hable

For finite samples with binary outcomes penalized logistic regression such as ridge logistic regression (RR) has the potential of achieving smaller mean squared errors (MSE) of coefficients and predictions than maximum likelihood…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-01-28 Hana Šinkovec , Georg Heinze , Rok Blagus , Angelika Geroldinger

Using normal approximation (NA) to construct a kernel-smoother-based confidence interval faces a fundamental challenge: the normalization makes a small estimation bias become a non-negligible inferential bias. This paper takes a different…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-28 Zihao Yuan , Sven Klaassen

LLM decoding often relies on the model's predictive distribution to generate an output. Consequently, misalignment with respect to the true generating distribution leads to suboptimal decisions in practice. While a natural solution is to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Tim Tomov , Dominik Fuchsgruber , Rajeev Verma , Stephan Günnemann

Randomized smoothing is the current state-of-the-art method for producing provably robust classifiers. While randomized smoothing typically yields robust $\ell_2$-ball certificates, recent research has generalized provable robustness to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-26 Samuel Pfrommer , Brendon G. Anderson , Somayeh Sojoudi

A regularized minimization model with $l_1$-norm penalty (RP) is introduced for training the autoencoders that belong to a class of two-layer neural networks. We show that the RP can act as an exact penalty model which shares the same…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2022-04-22 Wei Liu , Xin Liu , Xiaojun Chen

Do two data samples come from different distributions? Recent studies of this fundamental problem focused on embedding probability distributions into sufficiently rich characteristic Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs), to compare…

From the statistical learning perspective, complexity control via explicit regularization is a necessity for improving the generalization of over-parameterized models. However, the impressive generalization performance of neural networks…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-09 Taejong Joo , Uijung Chung

Theoretical analysis of the divide-and-conquer based distributed learning with least square loss in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) have recently been explored within the framework of learning theory. However, the studies on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-04-22 Yong Liu , Lizhong Ding , Weiping Wang

Maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) is widely used in sequence to sequence tasks for model training. It uniformly treats the generation/prediction of each target token as multi-class classification, and yields non-smooth prediction…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2018-12-13 Chengyue Gong , Xu Tan , Di He , Tao Qin

Predictive models that accurately emulate complex scientific processes can achieve exponential speed-ups over numerical simulators or experiments, and at the same time provide surrogates for improving the subsequent analysis. Consequently,…

Identification of model parameters in computer simulations is an important topic in computer experiments. We propose a new method, called the projected kernel calibration method, to estimate these model parameters. The proposed method is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-05-10 Rui Tuo

We characterize the minimax rate of estimating the second-order calibration error for binary classification, which quantifies whether a higher-order predictor's epistemic-uncertainty estimate matches the conditional variance of the label…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Kamil Ciosek , Banafsheh Rafiee , Sina Ghiassian , Nicolò Felicioni

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-09-10 Shengjia Zhao , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon