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Interpreting black-box machine learning models is challenging due to their strong dependence on data and inherently non-parametric nature. This paper reintroduces the concept of importance through "Marginal Variable Importance Metric"…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-01-30 Mohammad Kaviul Anam Khan , Olli Saarela , Rafal Kustra

Training data attribution (TDA) techniques find influential training data for the model's prediction on the test data of interest. They approximate the impact of down- or up-weighting a particular training sample. While conceptually useful,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-01 Elisa Nguyen , Minjoon Seo , Seong Joon Oh

We tackle the problem of bias mitigation of algorithmic decisions in a setting where both the output of the algorithm and the sensitive variable are continuous. Most of prior work deals with discrete sensitive variables, meaning that the…

Nowadays, with the availability of massive amount of trade data collected, the dynamics of the financial markets pose both a challenge and an opportunity for high frequency traders. In order to take advantage of the rapid, subtle movement…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2018-07-06 Dat Thanh Tran , Martin Magris , Juho Kanniainen , Moncef Gabbouj , Alexandros Iosifidis

In Business Intelligence, accurate predictive modeling is the key for providing adaptive decisions. We studied predictive modeling problems in this research which was motivated by real-world cases that Microsoft data scientists encountered…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-11-16 Junxuan Li , Yung-wen Liu , Yuting Jia , Yifei Ren , Jay Nanduri

We endorse the idea, suggested in recent literature, that BitCoin prices are influenced by sentiment and confidence about the underlying technology; as a consequence, an excitement about the BitCoin system may propagate to BitCoin prices…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2019-09-23 Alessandra Cretarola , Gianna Figà-Talamanca

Predicting volatility is important for asset predicting, option pricing and hedging strategies because it cannot be directly observed in the financial market. The Black-Scholes option pricing model is one of the most widely used models by…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2023-12-01 Soohan Kim , Seok-Bae Yun , Hyeong-Ohk Bae , Muhyun Lee , Youngjoon Hong

With an increased focus on incorporating fairness in machine learning models, it becomes imperative not only to assess and mitigate bias at each stage of the machine learning pipeline but also to understand the downstream impacts of bias…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-15 Pavan Ravishankar , Qingyu Mo , Edward McFowland , Daniel B. Neill

Many applications of machine learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, one data-driven approach…

Bearing fault detection is a critical task in predictive maintenance, where accurate and timely fault identification can prevent costly downtime and equipment damage. Traditional attention mechanisms in Transformer neural networks often…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-17 Marzieh Mirzaeibonehkhater , Mohammad Ali Labbaf-Khaniki , Mohammad Manthouri

We introduce and study the problem of detecting whether an agent is updating their prior beliefs given new evidence in an optimal way that is Bayesian, or whether they are biased towards their own prior. In our model, biased agents form…

计算机科学与博弈论 · 计算机科学 2024-10-31 Yiling Chen , Tao Lin , Ariel D. Procaccia , Aaditya Ramdas , Itai Shapira

Existing studies on crypto wash trading often use indirect statistical methods or leaked private data, both with inherent limitations. This paper leverages public on-chain NFT data for a more direct and granular estimation. Analyzing three…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2025-03-04 Brett Hemenway Falk , Gerry Tsoukalas , Niuniu Zhang

Financial prediction is a complex and challenging task of time series analysis and signal processing, expected to model both short-term fluctuations and long-term temporal dependencies. Transformers have remarkable success mostly in natural…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-17 Nguyen Kim Hai Bui , Nguyen Duy Chien , Péter Kovács , Gergő Bognár

We introduce a novel approach to options trading strategies using a highly scalable and data-driven machine learning algorithm. In contrast to traditional approaches that often require specifications of underlying market dynamics or…

投资组合管理 · 定量金融 2024-11-22 Wee Ling Tan , Stephen Roberts , Stefan Zohren

Vector data trading is essential for cross-domain learning with vector databases, yet it remains largely unexplored. We study this problem under online learning, where sellers face uncertain retrieval costs and buyers provide stochastic…

数据库 · 计算机科学 2025-11-11 Jin Cheng , Xiangxiang Dai , Ningning Ding , John C. S. Lui , Jianwei Huang

We present a dynamical model for the price evolution of financial assets. The model is based in a two level structure. In the first stage one finds an agent-based model that describes the present state of the investors' beliefs,…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2009-07-30 Miquel Montero

Online algorithms for detecting changepoints, or abrupt shifts in the behavior of a time series, are often deployed with limited resources, e.g., to edge computing settings such as mobile phones or industrial sensors. In these scenarios it…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-07-27 Gregory W. Gundersen , Diana Cai , Chuteng Zhou , Barbara E. Engelhardt , Ryan P. Adams

This study proposes a dynamic rule data mining algorithm based on an improved Transformer architecture, aiming to improve the accuracy and efficiency of rule mining in a dynamic data environment. With the increase in data volume and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-17 Jie Liu , Yiwei Zhang , Yuan Sheng , Yujia Lou , Haige Wang , Bohuan Yang

Model transparency is a prerequisite in many domains and an increasingly popular area in machine learning research. In the medical domain, for instance, unveiling the mechanisms behind a disease often has higher priority than the diagnostic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-23 João Pereira , Erik S. G. Stroes , Aeilko H. Zwinderman , Evgeni Levin

This paper proposes a forecast-centric adaptive learning model that engages with the past studies on the order book and high-frequency data, with applications to hypothesis testing. In line with the past literature, we produce brackets of…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2021-03-02 Parley Ruogu Yang