相关论文: CrossLag: Predicting Major Dengue Outbreaks with a…

Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is…

In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes…

Precise outbreak forecasting of infectious diseases is essential for effective public health responses and epidemic control. The increased availability of machine learning (ML) methods for time-series forecasting presents an enticing avenue…

Diffusion processes in a social system are governed by external triggers and internal excitations via interactions between individuals over social networks. Underlying mechanisms are crucial to understand emergent phenomena in the real…

With the emergence of new application areas such as cyber-physical systems and human-in-the-loop applications ensuring a specific level of end-to-end network latency with high reliability (e.g., 99.9%) is becoming increasingly critical. To…

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting,…

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to…

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important…

Granger causality is widely used for causal structure discovery in complex systems from multivariate time series data. Traditional Granger causality tests based on linear models often fail to detect even mild non-linear causal…

Dengue virus transmission models commonly assume an exponential distribution for the mosquito extrinsic incubation period (EIP), potentially oversimplifying biological variability. We developed a stochastic mechanistic dengue transmission…

Bangladesh's worsening dengue crisis, fueled by its tropical climate, poor waste management infrastructure, rapid urbanization, and dense population, has led to increasingly deadly outbreaks, posing a significant public health threat. To…

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak…

We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by…

Detecting and preventing outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases such as Dengue and Zika in Brasil and other tropical regions has long been a priority for governments in affected areas. Streaming social media content, such as Twitter, is…

In Domain Generalization (DG) tasks, models are trained by using only training data from the source domains to achieve generalization on an unseen target domain, this will suffer from the distribution shift problem. So it's important to…

The transmission of vector infectious diseases, which produces complex spatiotemporal patterns, is analyzed by a periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced…

An epidemic multi-strain model with temporary cross-immunity shows chaos, even in a previously unexpected parameter region. Especially dengue fever models with strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection have previously shown…

Dengue fever is a flu-like illness spread by the bite of an infected mosquito which is fast emerging as a major health problem. Timely and cost effective diagnosis using clinical and laboratory features would reduce the mortality rates…

Time series forecasting with exogenous variables is a critical emerging paradigm that presents unique challenges in modeling dependencies between variables. Traditional models often struggle to differentiate between endogenous and exogenous…

In this work, we aim to formalize a novel scientific machine learning framework to reconstruct the hidden dynamics of the transmission rate, whose inaccurate extrapolation can significantly impair the quality of the epidemic forecasts, by…