相关论文: A Concept of Possibility for Real-World Events

Communicating forecast uncertainty effectively is a persistent challenge in predictive endeavours such as weather forecasting. This paper explores the application of possibility theory as a complementary approach to traditional probability…

This paper considers the notion of possible events which are insignificant in probabilistic analysis (i.e. events that have zero probability). The paper discusses the method of modal logic based on "possible worlds" and discusses a…

Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, i.e., future real-world occurrences, and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a desired state. An event prediction method learns the…

The paper aim is the axiomatic justification of the theory of experience and chance, one of the dual halves of which is the Kolmogorov probability theory. The author's main idea was the natural inclusion of Kolmogorov's axiomatics of…

In recent years, there has been an increased need for the use of active systems - systems required to act automatically based on events, or changes in the environment. Such systems span many areas, from active databases to applications that…

This paper has been withdrawn by the author. In this short paper I introduce a concept of possibility in order to vindicate Everett's Theory of many worlds. The main idea is that there is only one world: the real. After the wave-collapse,…

The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the…

This paper addresses fundamental issues on the nature of the concepts and structures of fuzzy logic, focusing, in particular, on the conceptual and functional differences that exist between probabilistic and possibilistic approaches. A…

Starting with a likelihood or preference order on worlds, we extend it to a likelihood ordering on sets of worlds in a natural way, and examine the resulting logic. Lewis (1973) earlier considered such a notion of relative likelihood in the…

This contribution derives from a rather extensive study on the foundations of probability. We start by discussing critically the two main models of the random event in Probability Theroy and cast light over a number of incongruities. We…

We present a propositional logic to reason about the uncertainty of events, where the uncertainty is modeled by a set of probability measures assigning an interval of probability to each event. We give a sound and complete axiomatization…

The notion of events has occupied a central role in modeling and has an influence in computer science and philosophy. Recent developments in diagrammatic modeling have made it possible to examine conceptual representation of events. This…

This paper develops the model theory of normal modal logics based on partial "possibilities" instead of total "worlds," following Humberstone (1981) instead of Kripke (1963). Possibility semantics can be seen as extending to modal logic the…

Individuals have an intuitive perception of what makes a good coincidence. Though the sensitivity to coincidences has often been presented as resulting from an erroneous assessment of probability, it appears to be a genuine competence,…

The focus of the current work concerned the psychological processes that underlie prediction of an events duration. The objective was to push forward existing psychological theory on event duration prediction, something made possible by the…

The answers people give when asked to 'think of the unexpected' for everyday event scenarios appear to be more expected than unexpected. There are expected unexpected outcomes that closely adhere to the given information in a scenario,…

Hazard serves as a pivotal estimand in both practical applications and methodological frameworks. However, its causal interpretation poses notable challenges, including inherent selection biases and ill-defined populations to be compared…

We present a propositional logic %which can be used to reason about the uncertainty of events, where the uncertainty is modeled by a set of probability measures assigning an interval of probability to each event. We give a sound and…

Understanding the 3D world from 2D images involves more than detection and segmentation of the objects within the scene. It also includes the interpretation of the structure and arrangement of the scene elements. Such understanding is often…

When developing autonomous systems, engineers and other stakeholders make great effort to prepare the system for all foreseeable events and conditions. However, these systems are still bound to encounter events and conditions that were not…